The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 resilience investment agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 resilience investment edition.
Contents
7.1Questions for the operational series
- P-01
What share of each national portfolio funds upkeep and adaptation rather than new build, and can it be measured on one basis?
INI-SR14-PRT-01 · portfolio resilience share; first output: common-basis table for national portfolios.
- P-02
How much of tracked adaptation finance reaches national priorities, and how much is debt?
INI-SR14-ADP-02 · adaptation finance tracking; first output: adaptation flow table.
- P-03
Which assets need upkeep first, and where do asset condition and hazard exposure overlap?
INI-SR14-MNT-03 · upkeep and exposure; first output: exposure overlay.
- P-04
How much of disaster loss is covered by public or private cover, and how fast does cover pay?
INI-SR14-RSK-04 · risk transfer and public cover; first output: cover and payout table.
- P-05
How quickly does recovery money move from pledge to project?
INI-SR14-LAD-05 · recovery finance flows; first output: pledge-to-payment chart.
- P-06
Which governments publish resilience spending on a comparable basis?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.
- P-07
How do energy security priorities change the resilience share of investment?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.
- P-08
Which investment capabilities have been tested in real loss years, and which are only planned?
Resilience investment capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 resilience investment portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-SR14-PRT-01 | Portfolio resilience share | Initiative | P-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR14-ADP-02 | Adaptation finance tracking | Initiative | P-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR14-MNT-03 | Upkeep and exposure | Initiative | P-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR14-RSK-04 | Risk transfer and public cover | Initiative | P-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SR14-LAD-05 | Recovery finance flows | Initiative | P-05 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-SR14-2027-01 | Loss-year Universe mission | Mission | P-01 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
The resilience investment edition reads national portfolio chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.
- 01
National portfolio chapters
investment reading in each national edition
IN PREPARATION · national baselines
- 02
Sector editions
energy, finance, disaster, infrastructure
PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions
- 03
Resilience investment model
the global system of investment and risk
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence
- 04
Strategic links
SR-02 lifelines · SR-05 fiscal resilience · SR-06 insurance and protection gaps
PLANNED · strategic baselines
- 05
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027
- 06
Resilience Investment Report
this series
BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition
- 07
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027
7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the resilience investment candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | 2027 resilience investment annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-SR14-2027-01 · Loss-year Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENE-001 · energy investment | sector editions | energy investment tables | PUBLIC |
| INF-002 · asset condition | INI-SR14-MNT-03 | upkeep and exposure | PUBLIC |
| CLI-003 · disaster losses | INI-SR14-RSK-04 | risk transfer and public cover | PUBLIC |
| FIN-005 · cat bonds | INI-SR14-RSK-04 | risk transfer and public cover | PUBLIC |
| DEV-006 · adaptation finance | INI-SR14-ADP-02 | adaptation finance tracking | PUBLIC |
| CLI-008 · recovery funds | INI-SR14-LAD-05 | recovery finance flows | PUBLIC |
| INF-010 · national plans | INI-SR14-PRT-01 · key F review | portfolio resilience share | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · loss-year test | MSN-SR14-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the federation | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy investment report | IEA | annual | ENE-001 |
| Disaster loss figures | Munich Re and Swiss Re Institute | annual | CLI-003 |
| Cat bond market data | Artemis tracker | quarterly | FIN-005 |
| Climate finance landscape | Climate Policy Initiative | biennial | DEV-006 |
| Loss and damage fund reports | UNFCCC and the fund | per Board meeting | CLI-008 |
| Resource adequacy papers | IMF | annual | FIN-009 |
| Grant round notices | national agencies | per round | INF-010 |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- annual publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-SR14-001 | Record cat bond issuance in 20255 | CORROBORATED | FIN · CLI | risk object RSK-SR14-FIN-001 |
| SIG-SR14-002 | Adaptation finance far below need67 | CORROBORATED | DEV · FIN | research question P-02 |
| SIG-SR14-003 | Slow conversion of recovery pledges8 | PARTIAL | CLI · DEV | research question P-05 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5Artemis (ed.), Catastrophe bond market records that were broken in 2025 (issuance about USD 25.6 billion; outstanding market just over USD 61.3 billion; 122 new 144A and private deals). Artemis, Bermuda. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7UNFCCC (ed.), New collective quantified goal on climate finance, decision text FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/L.22, 24 November 2024 (at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035; call for USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources; adaptation finance needs USD 215 to 387 billion a year to 2030). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back