Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Money meets risk
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A loss year that meets tight public budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Resilience Investment Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Insured share of overall disaster losses, 2025 | 108 ÷ 224 | ≈ 48% |
| (2) | Share of loss and damage fund pledges received | 397.74 ÷ 790.24 | ≈ 50% |
| (3) | 2025 cat bond issuance relative to year-end outstanding (not a growth rate) | 25.6 ÷ 61.3 | ≈ 42% |
| (4) | Average commitment per resilience facility arrangement | 10.3 ÷ 27 | ≈ 0.38 SDR billion |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Resilience Investment Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR14-INVESTMENT · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent resilience investment as a connected system and the mechanisms by which money, losses and cover move between energy, infrastructure, adaptation and recovery
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
5strong
documented within one season
3moderate
documented, buffered
12weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-INVESTMENT-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 resilience investment annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Resilience Investment Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy investment | 2026 estimate | May 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| US asset condition | 2025 | Mar 2025 | four-yearly | 2029 |
| Disaster losses | 2025 | Jan to Mar 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| Cat bond market | 2025 | early 2026 | quarterly | next quarterly report |
| Climate finance landscape | 2023 | Jun 2025 | biennial | 2027 |
| Climate finance decision | 2024 | Nov 2024 | one-off | none scheduled |
| Loss and damage fund | Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | per meeting | next Board report |
| IMF resilience facility | to Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | annual | 2027 |
| US grant round | 2026 | Sep 2026 | per round | selection results |
| National plans | 2023 to 2026 | 2025 to 2026 | per plan | not scheduled |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | GOOD | grid and storage detail |
| Infrastructure | PARTIAL | condition outside the US |
| Disaster losses | GOOD | comparability of series |
| Risk transfer | PARTIAL | public cover data |
| Climate finance | PARTIAL | private adaptation finance |
| Recovery funds | THIN | payment speed |
| National portfolios | THIN | common basis |
| Multilateral lending | PARTIAL | country-level use |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Resilience share of national investment on a common basis | national budget offices and statistics offices | not published on a common basis; no consolidated series |
| Split between upkeep and new build in national portfolios | national infrastructure plans | not retrieved; plans use different categories |
| Grid investment detail from the full IEA World Energy Investment 2026 report | IEA World Energy Investment 202636 | the report page returned an access error; only the launch presentation was read |
| Adaptation finance needs and gap from the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025 | UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 202535 | the report page returned an access error; figures seen only in search summaries |
| Disaster cost and return figures from the UNDRR GAR 2025 itself | UNDRR GAR 202523 | the report pages returned access errors |
| Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/2026 text and protection gap | Swiss Re Institute sigma 1/202625 | the sigma page returned an access error; figures come from a trade report |
| Ten-year funding total of the UK infrastructure strategy | UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy1428 | the publication page read gives no total; the parliamentary statement returned an access error |
| Size and term of the German special fund from the Finance Ministry page | Federal Ministry of Finance29 | the page returned a service error; split and term come from a law-firm note |
| Japan five-year plan details from the Cabinet Secretariat | Cabinet Secretariat plan documents17 | only a press report gave the total; the plan page read states a review cycle but no amount |
| Australian Disaster Ready Fund audit results | Australian National Audit Office30 | the audit page returned a service error |
| Private adaptation finance by country | Climate Policy Initiative full report6 | the full report exceeded the size the fetch tool accepts; the landing page gives no private figure |
| Envelope of the EU competitiveness fund | European Commission proposal2031 | sources differ; the Commission page returned an error |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the International Energy Agency. Annual. Role: binds ENE-001. Coverage: global. The 11-page launch presentation was read; the full report was not opened.
EVD-SR14-001
IEA World Energy Investment 2026 launch presentation1
Issued by the UN climate process. Per Board meeting. Role: binds CLI-008. Resources as at 23 September 2025.
EVD-SR14-002
Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage8
| Dimension | EVD-SR14-001 | EVD-SR14-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | slides only; sector detail partly in charts | status of resources stated in full |
| Timeliness | about 5 months into the year | about 7 weeks after the reporting date |
| Revision | estimates for 2026 will be revised | figures change at each Board meeting |
| Method transparency | method sits in the full report, not opened | trustee reporting stated |
| External validation | agency review | trustee and Board review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
- IEA36: grid and storage tables in the full report
- UNEP35: need and gap tables
- UNDRR23: investment and return chapters
- Swiss Re Institute25: protection gap section
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ASCE | American Society of Civil Engineers |
| CPI | Climate Policy Initiative |
| EIB | European Investment Bank |
| GAO | US Government Accountability Office |
| GAR | Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| NCQG | new collective quantified goal on climate finance |
| RSF | Resilience and Sustainability Facility |
| SDR | special drawing right |
| UNDRR | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction |
| UNEP | United Nations Environment Programme |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR14-PRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional investment cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: adaptation finance
- Construct
- finance tracked as supporting adaptation to climate change, from public and private sources
- Unit
- USD billion a year
- Method
- bottom-up tracking of public, private and multilateral flows
- Source
- Climate Policy Initiative landscape6
- Uncertainty
- the tracker calls its figure likely an underestimate
- Known limits
- tracking gaps, domestic flows and private flows differ by region
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026 full report (grid investment near USD 550 billion in 2026, from press summaries); the report page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, taken from search-result summaries (needs USD 310 to 365 billion a year by 2035; international public adaptation finance USD 26 billion in 2023; 59% as debt); the report pages returned access errors. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned access errors; no figure used in the findings. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025, taken from a trade report and search-result summaries; the sigma page returned an access error. Swiss Re Institute, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14HM Treasury and NISTA (eds.), UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (publication page; published 19 June 2025; no funding total on the page). UK Government, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Parliament, written statement HCWS717 on the 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error; no figure used. UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: German Federal Ministry of Finance, Special fund infrastructure and climate neutrality (EUR 500 billion total, from a search summary); the page returned a service error. Bundesministerium der Finanzen, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Cabinet Secretariat of Japan (ed.), Fundamental Plan for National Resilience (English page; the plan is reviewed about every five years; no five-year amount on the page read). Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian National Audit Office, Award of funding under the Disaster Ready Fund, audit report, taken from search-result summaries; the page returned a service error. Australian National Audit Office, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Climate Policy Initiative (ed.), Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (publication page, 23 June 2025; global climate finance USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation finance USD 65 billion, likely an underestimate; international flows to emerging and developing economies USD 196 billion, 78% public). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20European Parliament (ed.), European Competitiveness Fund, legislative observatory summary (proposed envelope EUR 234.3 billion for 2028 to 2034; multiannual financial framework described as a EUR 2 trillion budget). European Parliament, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: trade-press reports of the European Competitiveness Fund envelope (figures between EUR 409 billion and EUR 451 billion), taken from search-result summaries; the figures conflict with the Parliament summary [20]. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation (11 pages, Paris, 28 May 2026; global energy investment USD 3.4 trillion in 2026 estimate against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015; electricity supply and infrastructure USD 1.6 trillion). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8UNFCCC (ed.), Report of the Board of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, addendum FCCC/CP/2025/10/Add.1, 10 November 2025 (pledges USD 790.24 million and amount received USD 397.74 million at 23 September 2025; 27 contributors). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back