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Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

8 min read2 figures2 tables23 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Turkiye’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Turkiye sits on active faults, in a drying Mediterranean climate, with a large and fast-growing economy that buys most of its energy abroad. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: great earthquakes, a warming and drying climate, and dependence on imported fuel and food inputs.

The seismic layer dominates the tail. The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces home to about 14 million people910. The government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion, and the World Bank rapid estimate of direct physical damage exceeded USD 34.2 billion; the two measure different things and are not added1011. A magnitude 6.2 earthquake in the Sea of Marmara on 23 April 2025 was a reminder of the exposure of the Istanbul region12, and a published estimate gives a 53 ± 18% probability of a magnitude 7 or larger event beneath the Sea of Marmara between 2004 and 203413.

The climate layer is moving. 2025 averaged 15.1 °C, 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean, and rainfall was 27.6% below it8. Per-person renewable water was about 1,308 m³ in 202421, Istanbul’s reservoirs held 24.7% on 17 October 202522, and about 684 sinkholes have been counted on the Konya Plain, where groundwater is being drawn down23. Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 202524.

The energy layer is changing quickly but still leans on imports. Renewables reached 62.3% of installed capacity at the end of 202517, and wind and solar produced about 22% of electricity14. Coal still produced 34%, about two-thirds of it imported14, and about 67% of primary energy was imported in 202415.

The demographic layer is younger than in many large economies: the median age was 34.9 years and 11.1% of the population was 65 or over in 2025125. The country also hosts a large foreign and refugee population130. Its population is concentrated in cities, with 93.6% living in province and district centres1.

This edition therefore reads Turkiye’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How is Turkiye’s 2024 emissions total built up? Greenhouse-gas emissions by sector (Mt CO₂e)

Energy supplies 71.8% of the 2024 total. The 2035 limit of 643 Mt CO₂e includes land use and is set against a business-as-usual path of 1,109 Mt, so it cannot be read directly against this table234.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Energy419.9
Industrial processes75.7
Agriculture73.5
Waste15.4

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

584.5Mt CO₂e

total emissions, 20242

6.8t CO₂e

per person, 20242

466Mt

below business as usual by 20353

2053net zero

national goal36

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Turkiye matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    SEI → INF → HLT

    A great earthquake damages housing and lifelines across a province group.

    Reported 6 February 20239

  2. 02

    SEI → FIN

    Recovery needs weigh on public finance and insurance pools.

    Reported TERRA11 · DASK29

  3. 03

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    A dry year lowers reservoirs and groundwater and cuts the wheat harvest.

    Reported 202582022

  4. 04

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    Persistent drought reduces hydropower output.

    Reported Ember14

  5. 05

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    Import dependence passes fuel prices into the energy bill.

    Reported 2025 bill16

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  3. 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
  4. 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667back
  6. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  8. 22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
  9. 23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  10. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  11. 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  12. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  13. 15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  14. 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  15. 25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  16. 30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  17. 2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  18. 3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
  19. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  20. 6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  21. 29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  22. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  23. 16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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