- Turkiye 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Renewable water per person, a year
1,308m³Down from 1,652 m³ in 2000, and below the 1,700 m³ level commonly used as the water-stress threshold.
Reported2024DSİ via press21
ENE · Energy
Renewables in installed power capacity
62.3%Coal still produced 34% of electricity in 2025.
FOO · Food
Wheat harvest
17.9MtDown 13.7% on 2024; FAO estimates a record 22.8 Mt for 2026.
HLT · Health
Population aged 65 or over
11.1%Median age 34.9 years; heat-health data are not bound in this edition.
BIO · Biodiversity
Forest land burned
81,473ha3,224 fires; the cause of 1,012 fires, burning 37,626 ha, was not determined.
Reported2025OGM via press24
SYS · Cross-system
Recovery and reconstruction need after the 2023 earthquakes
103.6USD billionAbout 53,500 deaths in 11 provinces.
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | About 1,308 m³ per person; reservoir and groundwater stress in drought years; Konya sinkholes. | WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
| ENE | Renewables are 62.3% of capacity; coal still 34% of electricity; about 67% of primary energy imported. | ENE ← TRD · ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Wheat output fell 13.7% in 2025 and is estimated to recover in 2026; food inflation about 38% in July 2026. | FOO ← WAT, CLI, TRD | Reported EQL 3 |
| HLT | Younger than many peers; 11.1% aged 65 or over; heat-health burden not bound. | HLT ← CLI, SEI | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | 81,473 ha of forest burned in 2025; protected-area share not bound to one definition. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | 2025 was 1.2 °C above the 1991–2020 mean with rainfall 27.6% below it. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 5 |
| INF | Dense urban housing and lifeline stock in seismic zones; condition not bound at public-safe resolution. | INF → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
| FIN | About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover; recovery needs of USD 103.6 billion in 2023. | FIN ← SEI, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand for power and water not bound in this edition. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Imported fuels and coal; critical-mineral dependence not bound. | MIN ← TRD | Inferred EQL 2 |
| TRD | A large trading economy that imports most of its primary energy; USD 62.5 billion energy bill in 2025. | TRD → all | Reported EQL 4 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound seismic, drought and import stress | drought year; Marmara earthquake | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | per-person supply 1,308 m³21 | drought; groundwater depletion | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | renewables 62.3% of capacity17 | import disruption; hydropower under drought | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | wheat 17.9 Mt in 202520 | short harvest; import prices | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | median age 34.91 | heat and care load; data not bound | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance | recovery need USD 103.6 billion11 | catastrophe fiscal cost | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | urban population share 93.6%1 | service demand in cities | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | 2025 at +1.2 °C8 | heat and drought | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | official records and assessments1011 | great earthquakes; fire | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | power fleet 122.5 GW17 | seismic and fire exposure | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | concentrated urban population1 | quake, heat and supply stress | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | about 3.8 million ha protected26 | fire; land-use change | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national climate and seismic monitoring812 | continuity | GOOD |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | Climate Law in force6 | implementation rules | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed seismic literature13 | translation to provinces | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
- 25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
- 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
- 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667back