- Turkiye 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
Turkiye enters 2027 with rising emissions, a power fleet that has become mostly renewable by capacity, and a hazard regime that joins great earthquakes, drought and fire. Greenhouse-gas emissions were 584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023, and energy supplied 71.8% of the total2. The second climate contribution, submitted in November 2025, limits 2035 emissions to 643 Mt CO₂e including land use, which is 466 Mt below the business-as-usual path, and the national goal is net zero by 205334. Renewables were 62.3% of installed power capacity at the end of 2025, yet coal still produced 34% of electricity, about two-thirds of it from imported coal1417, and about 67% of primary energy was imported in 202415. The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion91011. 2025 was the fifth warmest year in the 55-year record, with rainfall 27.6% below the 1991–2020 mean8, and the wheat harvest fell to about 17.9 million tonnes20. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Turkiye’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which seismic, climate and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Where a figure could not be bound to a published source, the page says so. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the Turkiye baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
584.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.3% on 2023.2
Where do emissions stand?Reported
The 2023 earthquakes killed about 53,500 people, and a magnitude 6.2 event struck Marmara in April 2025.912
How exposed is Turkiye to great earthquakes?Reported
Renewables are 62.3% of capacity, yet about 67% of primary energy is imported.1517
How secure is energy supply?Reported
Wheat output fell 13.7% in the 2025 drought and is estimated to recover in 2026.1920
How secure is food?Reported
About 1,308 m³ per person in 2024, below the common stress threshold.21
How tight is water?Reported
Not bound: no national heat-death series was retrieved. Ministry of Health
Is heat a health hazard?Not bound
About 42% of residential units lack compulsory earthquake cover.29
Who carries the losses?Reported
A drought year cutting water, hydropower, wheat and household budgets together. SCN-TUR-DRT-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005
The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 killed about 53,500 people across 11 provinces, and the government assessment put recovery and reconstruction needs at about USD 103.6 billion, or about 9% of forecast 2023 GDP.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Deaths (thousands) | ≈53.5 | |
| Recovery and reconstruction need, TERRA (USD billion) | ≈103.6 | |
| Direct physical damage, GRADE (USD billion) | >34.2 |
Sources: TMMOB report on official figures9; World Bank GRADE10; TERRA11. Units differ and the two cost figures measure different things.
One event reached housing, health, power, transport and public finance across 11 provinces at once. The recovery need set against national output shows the fiscal weight of a single seismic shock11. A separate published estimate gives a substantial probability of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake beneath the Sea of Marmara, next to Istanbul, between 2004 and 203413.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Turkiye’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, drought has become a recurring stress, and import dependence carries shocks into energy and food.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as an earthquake, a dry summer or a price rise.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover, a national emissions trading system is in pilot preparation, and recovery needs after 2023 were large.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Turkiye is building clean power quickly, yet water, food and fuel still depend on rainfall and imports.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of Turkiye’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
- 3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
- 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
- 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
- 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
- 10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
- 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
- 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
- 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667back
- 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back