Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a second drought year change reservoir storage, hydropower and urban supply in Istanbul and Ankara?

    INI-TUR-WAT-01 · drought and supply; first output: storage and supply baseline for two cities.

  2. A-02

    How deep are fuel and gas stocks against a prolonged import disruption?

    INI-TUR-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are wheat, feed and fertiliser supply to a short harvest and import shocks?

    INI-TUR-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How would a Marmara-region earthquake cut power, transport, water and care together?

    INI-TUR-SEI-04 · lifeline continuity; first output: dependency graph for one metropolitan area.

  5. A-05

    Where do earthquake and fire losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

    INI-TUR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do heat and wildfire load health and care in summer?

    To be admitted when heat-health data are bound; first output: scoping note.

  7. A-07

    How do land-use change and fire affect ecosystem condition outside protected areas?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-TUR-WAT-01Drought and urban supply baselineInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-TUR-ENE-02Fuel and gas import resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-TUR-FOO-03Food and feed import exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-TUR-SEI-04Lifeline continuity after great earthquakesInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-TUR-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-TUR-WAT-01aTwo-city storage and supply graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-TUR-2027-01Drought-year compound Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Turkiye is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Turkiye from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-TUR-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-TUR-2027-01 · Drought-year compound Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · importsINI-TUR-ENE-02import resiliencePUBLIC
CLI-004 · 2025 climateINI-TUR-WAT-01drought and supplyPUBLIC
SEI-005 · 2023 earthquakesINI-TUR-SEI-04lifeline continuityPUBLIC
WAT-007 · waterINI-TUR-WAT-01two-city graphPUBLIC
FOO-008 · wheatINI-TUR-FOO-03import exposurePUBLIC
FIN-011 · insuranceINI-TUR-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-TUR-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Earthquake informationAFADreal timeSEI findings
Climate monitoring and drought mapsTurkish State Meteorological Servicemonthly and annualCLI-004
Reservoir and water dataState Hydraulic Works · İSKİperiodicWAT-007
Electricity dataEPİAŞ transparency platformhourlyENE findings
Crop and population statisticsTurkStatannualFOO-008 · HLT-009
Forest-fire countsGeneral Directorate of ForestryseasonalBIO-010
Insurance take-upDASKperiodicFIN-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-TUR-001A dry 2025 followed by a record wheat estimate for 20261920CORROBORATEDCLI · FOOrisk object RSK-TUR-CLI-002
SIG-TUR-002Repeated earthquakes: 2023 and a magnitude 6.2 event in 2025912CORROBORATEDSEI · allresearch question A-04
SIG-TUR-003Wind and solar above 20% of electricity in 202514CORROBORATEDENE · CLIinitiative A-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  2. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 9Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (ed.), Report on the first year after the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, citing official figures. TMMOB, Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
  4. 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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