Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

11 min read0 figures8 tables31 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Turkiye’s risk: great earthquakes dominate the tail, drought has become a recurring stress, and import dependence carries shocks into energy and food. Evidence is strongest for emissions, climate and the 2023 event, and weakest for heat-health, lifeline continuity and building-stock condition.

CLI-001 · SEI-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as an earthquake, a dry summer or a price rise. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how drought and import prices reach household budgets, and how earthquake recovery is shared between households, insurers and the state.

FOO-008 · FIN-011 · SEI-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. About 58% of residential units hold compulsory earthquake cover, a national emissions trading system is in pilot preparation, and recovery needs after 2023 were large¹¹²⁹⁷. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · SEI-005

NEXUS

Synthesis

Turkiye is building clean power quickly, yet water, food and fuel still depend on rainfall and imports. The 2027 programme should test the drought pathway, map lifeline dependencies for one metropolitan area, and measure fuel and wheat import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Turkiye. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Turkiye	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

The 2023 earthquakes showed how one event reaches housing, health, power and public finance together. The baseline treats a Marmara-region earthquake as a coupling problem, not as a building problem alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The long tail is seismic

A dry 2025 lowered reservoirs, cut the wheat harvest and weighed on hydropower. A second dry year would test all three at once.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Drought is no longer an exception

Turkiye’s renewable capacity grew quickly, but coal and imports still carry the system. Energy security is a trade question as much as a build question.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Clean capacity, imported security

This edition leaves several cells empty and names the source that would fill each. A blank with a blocker is more useful than an estimate without a source.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · second NDC, 466 Mt below business as usual, 643 Mt in 2035³³⁵	UNFCCC · Turkiye	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Climate Law, Law No. 7552⁶	Government of Turkiye	national	IN FORCE 2025	net zero 2053 · legal basis
National emissions trading system under the Climate Law⁷	Government of Turkiye	large installations	PILOT PREPARATION	carbon pricing
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework³³	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Compulsory earthquake insurance²⁹	DASK	residential units	IN FORCE	protection gap

Changed since 2024

Turkiye submitted its second climate contribution in November 2025³
The Climate Law entered into force on 9 July 2025⁶
Implementing rules for the emissions trading system are in preparation⁷

To watch in 2027

The next biennial transparency report and its method note for the 2035 limit⁴⁵
Pilot phase of the national emissions trading system⁷
Akkuyu Unit 1 start-up and its effect on the power mix¹⁸

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Turkiye’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)³²	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁸	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁹	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
MGM climate assessment⁸	assessment	2026	supports	warming and drought
Parsons¹³	journal article	2004	supports	seismic probability

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
World Bank GRADE report¹⁰	World Bank	2023	supports	tail risk
TERRA assessment¹¹	Government of Turkiye	2023	supports	recovery needs
Second climate contribution³⁴⁴	Government of Turkiye	2025	supports	emissions pathway
IEA energy policy review⁴⁶	IEA	2021	context	energy
OECD Economic Survey³¹	OECD	2025	context	macro

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
GHG inventory²	TurkStat	2026	supports	emissions
Population results¹	TurkStat	2026	supports	profile
Elderly statistics²⁵	TurkStat	2026	supports	ageing
Life tables⁴⁵ · health statistics⁴⁰	TurkStat · WHO	2025	context	life expectancy, not bound
Crop monitoring¹⁹	FAO	2026	supports	food

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Catastrophe insurance data²⁹	DASK	2026	supports	protection gap
Refugee operations³⁰	UNHCR	2026	supports	population pressure
Electricity review¹⁴	Ember	2026	supports	power mix
Energy transition outlook¹⁶	SHURA	2026	context	energy bill
NatCatSERVICE³⁷	Munich Re	2026	context	global losses

Where the evidence agrees

Turkiye is warming and 2025 was dry⁸
Great earthquakes remain a long-term hazard near Istanbul¹³
Energy imports expose the economy to price shocks¹⁵¹⁶

Where it is unsettled

How to express long-term earthquake probability for public use, since the cited estimate is from 2004¹³
How fast clean power can replace imported coal and gas¹⁴
How much heat mortality is recorded

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
7International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), “Türkiye adopts landmark climate law paving way for national ETS.” ICAP, Berlin, July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
3Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), “Türkiye submits its second Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations.” Ankara, November 2025. Observation year 2035 target.back
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2025–2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
5University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Türkiye. UMD CGS, College Park, August 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
38P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667 back
10World Bank and GFDRR (eds.), Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye Report. World Bank, Washington DC, February 2023. Observation year 2023.back
44Climate Analytics (ed.), 1.5°C national pathway explorer: Türkiye. Climate Analytics, Berlin, 2025. Observation year 2035 pathway.back
46International Energy Agency (ed.), Türkiye 2021: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2021. Observation year 2020.back
31OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023.back
40World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023.back
19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
37Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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