Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table8 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-SEI-001

    Marmara-region or North Anatolian great earthquake

    Driver
    rupture of faults beneath or near the Sea of Marmara
    Exposure
    the Istanbul region and nearby provinces
    Vulnerability
    building-stock condition not bound in this edition
    Capacity
    compulsory insurance pool; response agency
    Cascade
    SEI → INF, ENE, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    30 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-TUR-CLI-002

    Multi-year drought and water stress

    Driver
    lower rainfall and higher temperature
    Exposure
    cities, irrigated farmland, hydropower
    Vulnerability
    groundwater drawdown; reservoir storage
    Capacity
    storage and transfer works; demand management not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
    Horizon
    annual to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-ENE-003

    Fuel and gas import disruption

    Driver
    price spike or supply interruption
    Exposure
    power, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    about 67% of primary energy imported
    Capacity
    renewable fleet; storage depth not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-TUR-FOO-004

    Short harvest and import price exposure

    Driver
    drought or frost in a growing season
    Exposure
    wheat, feed and household food budgets
    Vulnerability
    dependence on imports in short years
    Capacity
    stock and trade policy not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO → FIN
    Horizon
    seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building and land-use registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSnational climate monitoring and seismic reporting are in continuous use812
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: AFAD and MGM warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster plans · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: energy, grain and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form
ResponseLISTEDnational forest-fire response recorded 3,224 fires in 202524; wider response capacity not bound
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryLISTEDgovernment recovery assessment of USD 103.6 billion11; delivery not bound
AdaptationLISTEDClimate Law in force from 9 July 20256
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: social-security statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Finance and insuranceEXISTScompulsory earthquake insurance covers 58% of residential units29
Institutional coordinationLISTEDnational disaster agency reports hazard events12; coordination evidence not bound
Technical infrastructureLISTED122.5 GW installed power capacity17; network condition not bound
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityLISTEDpeer-reviewed seismic hazard literature exists13
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 12Al Jazeera (ed.), “Magnitude 6.2 earthquake jolts Türkiye’s Istanbul,” reporting AFAD data. Doha, 23 April 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
  5. 6Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law, Law No. 7552. Official Gazette No. 32951, Ankara, 9 July 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 29Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (DASK), compulsory earthquake insurance coverage, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara and Istanbul, August 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  7. 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 13T. Parsons, “Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 109, B05304, 2004. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667. Observation period 2004–2034. doi:10.1029/2003JB002667back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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