Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a year of rainfall about 25% below the 1991–2020 mean, as in 20258, followed by a second dry winter
Analogues
2025 drought year; hydropower and wheat outcomes of 20251420
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    reservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted

    20252223

  2. 2

    CLI → ENE

    hydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap

    202514

  3. 3

    CLI → FOO

    wheat output falls; imports rise

    202520

  4. 4

    FOO → FIN

    food prices pass into household budgets

    202619

  5. 5

    WAT → BIO

    dry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected

    202524

  6. 6

    WAT → INF

    groundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland

    202523

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01 would travel through Turkiye’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterReservoirs and groundwater fall; city supply is restricted. Analogue or source: 2025 [22] [23].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 1
02 Climate to energyHydropower output falls; other plants and imports fill the gap. Analogue or source: 2025 [14].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 2
03 Climate to foodWheat output falls; imports rise. Analogue or source: 2025 [20].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 3
04 Food to financeFood prices pass into household budgets. Analogue or source: 2026 [19].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 4
05 Water to biodiversityDry forests burn more; protected and unprotected land is affected. Analogue or source: 2025 [24].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 5
06 Water to infrastructureGroundwater drawdown opens sinkholes on farmland. Analogue or source: 2025 [23].Edition TUR, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Turkiye 2026, scenario SCN-TUR-DRT-01 (2026); Turkiye 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
  5. 23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  7. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Turkiye.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Drought

Low river flows cut irrigation, cooling water and hydropower at once; food prices, nutrition and ecosystems follow.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.68 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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