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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Renewable water per person has fallen to about 1,308 m³ a year, below the level commonly used as the stress threshold, and a dry 2025 lowered reservoirs and groundwater.

1,308m³

per person a year, 202421

24.7%

Istanbul reservoirs, 17 October 202522

≈684sinkholes

Konya Plain, reported December 202523

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Per-person supplyabout 1,652 m³ in 2000, about 1,308 m³ in 202421Reported
Rainfall27.6% below the 1991–2020 mean in 20258Reported
CitiesIstanbul reservoirs at 24.7% on 17 October 202522Reported
Groundwatersinkholes counted on the Konya Plain; fall rates are expert estimates23Reported
National storagenational reservoir series not retrievedState Hydraulic WorksNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT rainfall and temperature
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and crops
  • WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling
  • WAT → INF groundwater drawdown and subsidence

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national reservoir storage
  • abstraction and well-licensing data

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Renewables are now 62.3% of installed capacity, yet coal still produced 34% of electricity in 2025 and about two-thirds of primary energy was imported in 2024.

62.3%

renewables in installed capacity, end 202517

34%

coal in electricity, 202514

62.5USD billion

energy import bill, 202516

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Capacity122.5 GW installed; renewables 62.3%17Reported
Generationcoal 34%; wind and solar about 22%; hydropower held down by drought14Reported
Importsabout 67% of primary energy imported in 202415Reported
NuclearAkkuyu Unit 1 had not reached first power by September 202618Reported
Gas shareshare of gas in 2025 generation not boundEPİAŞ · TEİAŞNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel imports
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • WAT → ENE hydropower
  • SEI → ENE plant and grid damage

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fuel and gas stock depth
  • gas share of generation

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025 wheat harvest fell about 13.7% in a dry year, and FAO estimates a record harvest for 2026, so the swing between years is the risk.

17.9Mt

wheat harvest, 202520

22.8Mt

FAO estimate for 202619

≈38%

annual food inflation, July 202619

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Harvest 2025about 17.9 Mt of wheat, against a first estimate of 19.6 Mt20Reported
Harvest 2026record 22.8 Mt estimated, about 16% above the five-year average19Reported
Importswheat imports of 7 Mt forecast for 2026/2719Reported
Pricesfood inflation about 38% in July 2026; flour up about 19%19Reported
Import concentrationby commodity and origin not boundUSDA and customs dataNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • CLI → FOO drought and frost
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • FOO → FIN household budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • import concentration by commodity
  • feed and fertiliser dependence

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Turkiye is younger than many large economies, but it hosts a large foreign population, and no national heat-health series was available at evidence close.

11.1%

aged 65 or over, 202525

1.52million

foreign residents, 20251

≈2.4million

Syrians under temporary protection, end 202530

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Ageing9.58 million aged 65 or over; 13.5% projected for 203025Reported
Median age34.9 years in 20251Reported
Foreign population1,519,515 in 20251Reported
Refugeesabout 2.4 million Syrians and 167,000 other applicants and holders, end 202530Reported
Heat deathsnational season total not retrievedMinistry of HealthNOT BOUND
Life expectancysecondary reports conflict; official table not read45NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • SEI → HLT injury and displacement
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths
  • care continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Wildfires burned 81,473 ha of forest land in 2025, and about 3.8 million ha were under legal protection, but no single agreed protected-area share is bound here.

81,473ha

forest burned, 202524

3,224fires

in 202524

≈3.8million ha

legally protected, end 202526

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fire3,224 fires; cause of 1,012 not determined24Reported
Protectionabout 3.8 million ha under legal protection at the end of 202526Reported
Share of landofficial reports give conflicting percentages2728NOT BOUND
Conditionnot bound outside protected areasn/aExpert input

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • protected share on one definition
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 21State Hydraulic Works (DSİ), per-person annual water availability 2000 and 2024, as reported by Anadolu Agency and Milliyet. Ankara, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  2. 22Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (İSKİ), reservoir occupancy of 17 October 2025, as reported by TRT Haber. Istanbul, October 2025. Observation date 17 October 2025.back
  3. 23Reuters, “Sinkholes in Turkey’s agricultural heartland fuel farmers’ concerns,” with AFAD assessment of 684 sinkholes, as published by Al-Monitor and The Star. 23 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 8Turkish State Meteorological Service (ed.), 2025 Climate Assessment of Türkiye (in Turkish). MGM, Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 17Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), installed power capacity at the end of 2025, as reported by SolarQuarter citing SHURA. Ankara, 22 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 14Ember (ed.), Türkiye Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 16SHURA Energy Transition Center (ed.), Türkiye Energy Transition Outlook 2025. SHURA, Istanbul, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 15Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ed.), Primary Energy Mix of Türkiye 2024, presentation at the IENE conference. Ankara and Athens, 19 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  9. 18Engineering News (ed.), “Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, Türkiye: update.” Johannesburg, 4 September 2026, with Interfax report of 21 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  10. 20Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Crop Production Statistics 2025, as reported by eFeedLink. Ankara, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  11. 19Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Türkiye. FAO, Rome, reference date 7 September 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  12. 25Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Elderly Statistics 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  13. 1Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025. TurkStat, Ankara, 9 February 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  14. 30UNHCR (ed.), Annual Results Report 2025: Türkiye. UNHCR, Geneva, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  15. 45Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Life Tables, 2021–2023. TurkStat, Ankara, 2024. Observation years 2021–2023.back
  16. 24General Directorate of Forestry (OGM), 2025 forest-fire statistics, as reported by Turkish Minute. Ankara, 11 March 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  17. 26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  18. 27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  19. 28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back
  20. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Turkiye Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Turkiye’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-TUR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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