- Turkiye 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Turkiye’s risk is seismic, climatic and import-dependent at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A drought year across water, hydropower, wheat and budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Uninsured share of residential units | 100 − 58 | 42% |
| (2) | Reduction under the 2035 limit, share of business as usual | 466 ÷ 1,109 | ≈ 42.0% |
| (3) | Rainfall deficit in 2025 against 1991–2020 | 573.4 − 414.9 | 158.5 mm |
| (4) | Share of the population aged 65 or over | 9,583,059 ÷ 86,092,168 | ≈ 11.1% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-TUR-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Turkiye as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for province or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-TUR-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-TUR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHG emissions | 2024 | Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Climate assessment | 2025 | 2026 | annual | annual |
| Earthquake assessments | 2023 | 2023 | per event | event-driven |
| Population | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | annual |
| Population aged 65+ | 2025 | Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Installed capacity | end 2025 | Jan 2026 | monthly | monthly |
| Wheat harvest | 2025 | Dec 2025 | annual | annual |
| Reservoir level (Istanbul) | 17 Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | continuous | continuous |
| Earthquake insurance take-up | 2026 | Aug 2026 | periodic | periodic |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Seismic hazard | PARTIAL | building-stock condition; current probability |
| Climate forcing | GOOD | regional rainfall extremes |
| Energy | GOOD | stock depth and routes; gas share |
| Food | PARTIAL | import concentration by commodity |
| Health | THIN | heat-health burden |
| Water | PARTIAL | national reservoir series |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | protected-area share; condition |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Turkish Statistical Institute. Annual, calendar-year basis, with IPCC AR5 global-warming potentials. Role: binds CLI-001 and the sector figures. The release was read through press reports of the bulletin, because the statistics portal needs a script-enabled browser.
EVD-TUR-001
GHG inventory 1990–20242
Issued by the Government of Turkiye with UN, World Bank and EU support, presented in March 2023. One-off. Role: binds SEI-005 cost figures, labelled as assessments.
EVD-TUR-002
TERRA recovery assessment11
| Dimension | EVD-TUR-001 | EVD-TUR-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste; land use not bound | eleven provinces; one-off |
| Timeliness | about three months after the year | weeks after the event |
| Revision | back-revised in later releases | not revised |
| Method transparency | published methodology | published assumptions |
| External validation | not bound in this edition | supported by UN, World Bank and EU |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AFAD | Disaster and Emergency Management Authority |
| BAU | business as usual |
| DASK | Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, compulsory earthquake insurance |
| DSİ | State Hydraulic Works |
| EPİAŞ | Energy Exchange Istanbul |
| ETKB | Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources |
| GIEWS | Global Information and Early Warning System, FAO |
| GRADE | Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation, World Bank |
| İSKİ | Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| MGM | Turkish State Meteorological Service |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| OGM | General Directorate of Forestry |
| TERRA | Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment |
| TMMOB | Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects |
| TurkStat | Turkish Statistical Institute |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-TUR-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Provincial notes | atlas cards for every province | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions
- Construct
- annual emissions minus land-use removals
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e, AR5 100-year potentials
- Scope
- calendar year
- Source
- TurkStat inventory2
- Revision
- back-revised in later releases
- Known limits
- the 2024 total used here excludes land use; the net series is not bound
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Turkish Statistical Institute (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics, 1990–2024. TurkStat, Ankara, 27 March 2026. Observation year 2024.back
- 11Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, Strategy and Budget Office (ed.), Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA). Ankara, March 2023, with UNDP, World Bank and EU support. Observation year 2023.back
- 26Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (ed.), legally protected areas at the end of 2025, as reported by Daily Sabah. Ankara, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 27Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks (ed.), Nature Conservation Status Report 2023. Ankara, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
- 28Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change (ed.), 7th State of the Environment Report of Türkiye. Ankara, 2024. Observation year 2023.back