Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%, and total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.

Figure 2.1Electricity generation by source, 2019 and 2025 (TWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Gas 2019134.8
Gas 2025125.5
Nuclear 20190
Nuclear 202539.1
Solar 20193.7
Solar 202518.2

Source: Ember yearly electricity data17.

Implication

Gas generation fell by about 7% while total output grew by a third, so the change came from new nuclear and solar capacity added to rising demand, not from lower demand. Cooling and desalination ride on the same grid, so the mix matters for heat and water as well as for emissions17.

What would move it

The 2026 generation data, summer peak demand and nuclear availability, solar commissioning against the 22 GW aim, and any published fuel burned for desalination would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Net greenhouse-gas emissions were 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019; energy gave 164.1 Mt, industrial processes 29.6 Mt and waste 5.6 Mt, and land use removed 6.6 Mt.3

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 2050; the 2023 update used a 2019 base of 225 Mt, so the base has been revised.12

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Rain of 254 mm fell in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024, the highest since records began in 1949; four deaths were reported in the UAE, and 85% of residents live in flood-prone, low-lying areas.2324

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%; total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.1718

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Renewable capacity was 7,907 MW at the end of 2025, against 6.8 GW in 2024 as reported to the UNFCCC; the national aim is 22 GW by 2031.194

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Internal renewable freshwater is 14.9 m³ per person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge.1020

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    Treated wastewater reuse reached 77% against a 95% aim for 2036, and the national demand programme reports 513 million m³ saved; a current national share of desalinated supply is not bound.121

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    At least 80% of food consumed is imported; arable land is 0.8% of land area and cereal production was about 20,000 tonnes in 2024.513

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    A reading of 51.6 °C was reported at Sweihan on 24 May 2025, and outdoor work stops from 12:30 to 15:00 between 15 June and 15 September; no national heat-illness series is bound.2526

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Protected areas covered 19.2% of land and 12.0% of marine waters in 2025; Abu Dhabi directed an expansion to 20% of its land in October 2025.1235

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Real GDP grew 4.0% in 2024 and the IMF projects 4.8% for 2025 and 5.0% for 2026; fuel was 68% of merchandise exports in 2023, and the non-oil primary balance is a deficit of 15.1% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025.515

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a humid summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
  3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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