Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The United Arab Emirates enters 2027 as a hot, hyper-arid federation of seven emirates with 11.3 million residents, an economy in which non-oil activity is about three quarters of output, and a power system that has changed quickly147. Its inventory reported net emissions of 195.2 Mt CO₂e in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 20193. The third climate contribution aims for 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, and net zero in 20501. Gas gave 68% of electricity in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, as nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%17. Water is the binding constraint: internal renewable freshwater is about 15 m³ a person, and in Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of the water consumed and was drawn at 24 times its recharge1020. The IMF reports that at least 80% of food is imported5. Heat and rain are both hazards: a reading of 51.6 °C was reported in May 2025, and 254 mm of rain fell in under 24 hours in April 20242523. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for these systems, maps the couplings through which heat, water, power and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the United Arab Emirates baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 195.2 Mt CO₂e net in 2022 including land use, 0.8% below 2019. Later years are not bound.3

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. 103.5 Mt CO₂e net in 2035, 47% below a 2019 base of 196.3 Mt; net zero in 2050.1

    What is the climate aim?Reported

  3. Gas 68%, nuclear 21%, solar 10% in 2025; 7,907 MW of renewables at the end of 2025.1719

    How is electricity made?Reported

  4. About 15 m³ of renewable freshwater a person; Abu Dhabi groundwater was drawn at 24 times recharge.1020

    How exposed is water?Reported

  5. At least 80% is imported. The import share by commodity is not bound.5

    How secure is food?Reported

  6. The third NDC names heat stress and heat stroke a high risk. A heat-illness series is not bound.1

    Is heat a health hazard?Reported

  7. 254 mm of rain in under 24 hours on 16 April 2024.23

    What does a flash flood look like?Reported

  8. A humid summer heat peak loading power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together. SCN-ARE-HTW-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Gas gave 68% of electricity generation in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, while nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%, and total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.

Figure S.1Electricity generation by source, 2019 and 2025 (TWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Gas 2019134.8
Gas 2025125.5
Nuclear 20190
Nuclear 202539.1
Solar 20193.7
Solar 202518.2

Source: Ember yearly electricity data17.

Gas generation fell by about 7% while total output grew by a third, so the change came from new nuclear and solar capacity added to rising demand, not from lower demand. Cooling and desalination ride on the same grid, so the mix matters for heat and water as well as for emissions17.

S.4At a glance

11.3million

population, 20247

74%

international migrant stock, 20246

86%

urban population, 20256

195.2Mt CO₂e

net emissions incl. land use, 20223

68%

gas share of electricity, 202517

≥80%

of food imported, per the IMF staff report5

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the United Arab Emirates’ risk: heat, scarce water and a gas-heavy but changing power system act together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Fuel income carries public finance, and insurance and reserve data are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The United Arab Emirates is changing its power mix quickly and is thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of the United Arab Emirates’ water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
  5. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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