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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

The United Arab Emirates has almost no renewable freshwater. Supply rests on groundwater, desalinated seawater and reuse, and agriculture and households use most of what is withdrawn.

14.9m³

internal renewable freshwater per person, 202210

60%

groundwater share of water consumed in Abu Dhabi20

77%

treated wastewater reused, per the third NDC1

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Natural supplyinternal renewable freshwater of 0.15 billion m³ in 202210Reported
GroundwaterAbu Dhabi groundwater 60% of water consumed, drawn at 24 times recharge; aim of 16 times by 203020Reported
Demand and reusereuse 77%, non-revenue water 11%, 513 million m³ saved by the demand programme1Reported
Desalinationa 2022 ministerial statement gave 42% of drinking water; a current national share is not bound21NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT power for desalination
  • WAT → FOO groundwater irrigation
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • CLI → WAT heat, rare rain and recharge

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • desalination capacity in use and share of supply
  • national groundwater storage series

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Gas still gave two thirds of electricity in 2025, yet nuclear and solar changed the mix within six years and the aim for renewables keeps rising.

68%

gas share of electricity, 202517

7,907MW

renewables, end 202519

470g CO₂e/kWh

grid emissions intensity, 202517

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixgas 68.0%, nuclear 21.2%, solar 9.9% in 2025; total 184.4 TWh1718Reported
Capacity7,907 MW of renewables at end 2025; 6.8 GW in 2024; aim of 22 GW by 2031194Reported
Dubai solarsolar park at 3,860 MW after 800 MW added in 2025, 21.5% of DEWA capacity34Reported
Fuel burnedfuel burned for power and desalination not boundfederal energy statisticsNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT desalination power
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • ENE → HLT cooling
  • FIN → ENE investment in the transition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • fuel burned for power and desalination
  • peak demand and reserve margin

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Almost all food is imported and arable land is under 1% of the territory, so food security is a trade, storage and diversification question as much as a water question.

≥80%

of food consumed is imported, 20255

0.8%

of land is arable, 202413

20,216tonnes

cereal production, 202413

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Importsat least 80% of domestic food consumption is imported5Reported
Domestic outputarable land 0.79% of land area; agriculture 0.77% of GDP in 202413Reported
StrategyNational Food Security Strategy 2051: a basket of 18 main items, 38 initiatives, 3 to 5 alternative supply sources per main item22Reported
Import shareshare imported by commodity, concentration by origin and reserve days not boundcustoms and trade statisticsNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • WAT → FOO groundwater irrigation
  • ENE → FOO cold chain and greenhouses
  • CLI → FOO heat and dust

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • import share by commodity and origin
  • strategic food reserve days

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy is high and the population is young, but extreme heat is a direct hazard for outdoor workers, and the third NDC names heat stress and heat stroke as a high risk1.

83.1years

life expectancy, 20249

57.2µg/m³

mean fine-particle exposure, 20239

51infractions

found in 134,000 midday-break inspections, 202426

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heat protectionoutdoor work stops 12:30 to 15:00 from 15 June to 15 September; 2025 was the 21st year; fines AED 5,000 per worker, up to AED 50,00026Reported
Heat recorda reading of 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025; May mean maximum 40.4 °C25Reported
Population1.8% aged 65 or over and 16.0% aged 0 to 14 in 20256Reported
Heat illnessnational heat-death and heat-illness series not boundMinistry of Health and PreventionNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • INF → HLT transport and care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national heat-illness series
  • counts of outdoor workers by sector

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Most of the land is desert. Protection now covers about a fifth of the land and an eighth of marine waters, and mangroves act as a coastal carbon and buffer system.

19.2%

of land protected, 202512

12.0%

of marine waters protected, 202512

201km²

of mangrove, per the third NDC1

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 19.2% and sea 12.0% in 2025; the national aim is 30% of marine areas by 20301236Reported
Abu Dhabidirective of 15 October 2025: 26 protected areas covering 22,821 km², 20% of the emirate’s land35Reported
Mangrovesthe third NDC gives 201 km² and 160 million more by 2030; a ministry official reported 51% of a 100 million tree target in August 2026; the two aims differ136Reported
Conditionnot bound outside protected areasn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT recharge and coastal buffering
  • BIO → FOO fisheries and soils
  • CLI → BIO heat and sea temperature

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • condition outside protected areas
  • coral and seagrass change

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 34Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park at 3,860 MW after 800 MW added in 2025 (about 21.5% of DEWA capacity), reported in “Al Maktoum Solar Park’s clean energy capacity hits 3.86GW in 2025,” TradeArabia, Manama, 28 December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.tradearabia.com/News/331795/Al-Maktoum-Solar-Park-s-clean-energy-capacity-hits-3.86GW-in-2025/CONS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), National Food Security Strategy 2051. u.ae, Abu Dhabi, page updated 30 December 2024. Observation year 2024. https://u.ae/about-the-uae/strategies-initiatives-and-awards/strategies-plans-and-visions/environment-and-energy/national-food-security-strategy-2051, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.DYN.LE00.IN, SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, SH.MED.PHYS.ZS, SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS and EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects, WHO and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2021–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 36Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statements on mangrove planting (51% of a 100 million tree target) and marine protection (about 12%, aim of 30% by 2030), reported in “UAE reaches 51% of target to plant 100 million mangrove trees by 2030,” Gulf News, Dubai, 22 August 2026. Observation year 2026. https://gulfnews.com/uae/environment/uae-reaches-51-of-target-to-plant-100-million-mangrove-trees-by-2030-1.500648706, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 35Office of the President of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), UAE President directs expansion of protected natural areas in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi, 15 October 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.mohamedbinzayed.ae/en/latest-news-listing/2025/10/UAE-President-directs-expansion-of-protected-natural-areas-in-emirate-of-Abu-Dhabi, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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