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Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table14 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-CLI-001

    Extreme heat and humidity

    Driver
    a reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025; humid heat rising2531
    Exposure
    outdoor workers; older residents
    Vulnerability
    a large outdoor workforce, per the third NDC1
    Capacity
    midday work break and fines26
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-WAT-002

    Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

    Driver
    groundwater drawn at 24 times recharge in Abu Dhabi20
    Exposure
    farms; cities supplied by desalinated water
    Vulnerability
    little renewable water: 14.9 m³ a person10
    Capacity
    Water Security Strategy 2036; reuse at 77%1
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    5–30 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARE-CLI-003

    Flash flood and urban drainage

    Driver
    intense rain on low-permeability, hyper-arid ground24
    Exposure
    85% of residents in flood-prone, low-lying areas24
    Vulnerability
    drainage built for rare rain24
    Capacity
    Tasreef drainage programme; cell-broadcast alerts2733
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-ARE-ENE-004

    Fuel and power supply under peak demand

    Driver
    summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
    Exposure
    power, desalination, cooling
    Vulnerability
    gas 68% of generation17
    Capacity
    5.6 GW of nuclear and 7.9 GW of renewables in service1719
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDthe federal climate law requires emissions reporting and decarbonisation plans; enforcement is not bound29
Monitoring and observationEXISTSthe National Centre of Meteorology issued the April 2024 and May 2025 figures2325
Early warningEXISTSa cell-broadcast alert system runs in Arabic and English; reach beyond compatible phones is not bound33
Preparedness and planningLISTEDthe midday break is announced each year; 2025 was the 21st consecutive year26
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: strategic food and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: civil-defence and health-emergency records · blocker: no post-event review retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: reconstruction records after the April 2024 rain · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDthe third NDC lists adaptation measures, and Dubai’s drainage programme runs to 2033; delivery not bound127
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: labour-insurance and health-cover registers · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: Central Bank insurance statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDprogress on the net zero initiative is tracked quarterly under the Prime Minister’s Office and the Cabinet4
Technical infrastructureEXISTS5.6 GW of nuclear and 7.9 GW of renewables in service1719
WorkforceLISTEDinspectors made 134,000 midday-break visits in 202426
Research capacityNOT BOUNDsource: national research output records · blocker: not reviewed
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back
  3. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 33National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Early Warning System (cell broadcast, Arabic and English), as described in “Rain in UAE: did you receive a public safety alert,” Gulf News, Dubai, 2023. Observation year 2023. https://gulfnews.com/amp/living-in-uae/safety-security/rain-in-uae-did-you-receive-a-public-safety-alert-here-is-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-national-early-warning-system-1.1700224017503, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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