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The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no emirate.

8 min read2 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is the United Arab Emirates’ risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The United Arab Emirates is a hyper-arid federation with very little rain, a fast-growing and largely international population of 11.3 million, and an economy in which non-oil activity is about three quarters of output while fuel was 68% of merchandise exports in 202316715. This baseline reads its exposure as four forces acting together: extreme heat, scarce water, a power system built on gas with a growing nuclear and solar share, and a food supply that is almost wholly imported51017.

The climate layer is hot and violent. The National Centre of Meteorology reported a mean maximum of 40.4 °C in May 2025 against 39.2 °C for 2003–2024, and a reading of 51.6 °C at Sweihan25. A study of weather-station data finds that extreme humid heat has more than doubled in frequency since 1979 and that some coastal subtropical sites have already reached a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C31. Rain is rare but can be extreme: 254 mm fell in under 24 hours in April 2024, the highest since records began in 1949, and a rapid attribution study found such rain 10 to 40% heavier than in an El Niño year in a climate 1.2 °C cooler, with caveats about short records2324.

Water is the binding constraint. Internal renewable freshwater is about 15 m³ a person10. In Abu Dhabi most groundwater is non-renewable, it supplied 60% of the water consumed, and it was drawn at 24 times the rate of recharge20. The third NDC reports that treated wastewater reuse reached 77% and that the demand programme has saved 513 million m³1. A current national figure for the share of supply that is desalinated is not bound; a 2022 ministerial statement gave 42% of drinking water21.

The energy layer links water, heat and emissions. Gas gave 68% of electricity in 2025, down from 97% in 2019, as nuclear reached 21% and solar 10%17. Renewable capacity was 7.9 GW at the end of 2025 and the aim is 22 GW by 2031194. Power also runs desalination, so a summer peak is a water question as well as an energy question. Climate Action Tracker read the plan in November 2024 as relying heavily on carbon capture while fossil gas supply expands30.

Beneath these sits dependence on imports and on fuel income. The IMF reports that at least 80% of food is imported and describes the country as highly vulnerable to extreme heat, drought, floods and sea-level rise5. It projects growth of 4.8% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026 and treats climate adaptation, water management and food security as long-term policy priorities5.

Figure 1.1How is electricity made, and what has changed? Generation by source (% of total)

Gas generation fell from 134.8 TWh in 2019 to 125.5 TWh in 2025, about 7%, while total generation rose from 138.5 to 184.4 TWh. Nuclear supplied 39.1 TWh and solar 18.2 TWh in 202517. Renewable capacity of 7,907 MW at the end of 2025 is read through a press report of IRENA data19.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Gas68
Nuclear21.2
Solar9.9
Other0.9

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE-01-003

125.5TWh

gas generation, 202517

39.1TWh

nuclear generation, 202517

18.2TWh

solar generation, 202517

7,907MW

renewable capacity, end 202519

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The United Arab Emirates matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
cooling water		STRONG
groundwater irrigation		MODERATE
drinking water · sanitation		MODERATE
aquifer · wadi flows
ENE EnergySTRONG
desalination · pumping		·MODERATE
cold chain · greenhouses		STRONG
cooling · facility power		WEAK
coastal sites
FOO FoodSTRONG
groundwater withdrawals		WEAK
food-processing load		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		WEAK
land use
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
recharge · coastal buffering		WEAK
coastal protection		MODERATE
fisheries · soils		MODERATE
dust · coastal protection		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → ENE → WAT

    A heat peak raises cooling demand, and desalination needs the same power.

    Inferred summer peak; not bound for 2025

  2. 02

    CLI → INF

    Record rain met inadequate drainage and abandoned cars in Dubai.

    Reported April 20242324

  3. 03

    WAT → FOO

    Groundwater mainly irrigates crops in Abu Dhabi.

    Reported policy 202220

  4. 04

    ENE → WAT

    Gas and nuclear power supply pumping and desalination.

    Inferred grid mix 202517

  5. 05

    TRD → FIN

    Fuel exports bring revenue while the non-oil fiscal balance is in deficit.

    Reported IMF 20255 · exports 202315

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: groundwater irrigationFood to water: groundwater withdrawals
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD and TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN for the United Arab Emirates, from national accounts and UN Comtrade. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2023–2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838back
  10. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 21Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), statement that the UAE meets 42 per cent of its drinking water needs through desalination, World Water Day, 22 March 2022, reported in “UAE needs to recycle every drop of water it has, minister says,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 23 March 2022. Observation year 2022. https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/environment/2022/03/22/uae-needs-to-recycle-every-drop-of-water-it-has-minister-says, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, United Arab Emirates (7,907 MW at the end of 2025), read through “UAE renewable capacity rises to 7.9 GW in 2025 as solar drives additions,” Zawya Projects, Dubai, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/utilities/uae-renewable-capacity-rises-to-79-gw-in-2025-as-solar-drives-additions-sbzbtfh4, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 4UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Record of the facilitative sharing of views at the sixty-third session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation: United Arab Emirates, FCCC/WEB/2025/FSVR.1/ARE. UNFCCC, Bonn, 19 December 2025. Observation years 2021–2031. https://www.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/FSVR1_UAE_Nov2025.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind United Arab Emirates.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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