Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

6 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a humid summer heat peak load power, desalination and outdoor-work protection together, and how much margin exists in each?

    INI-ARE-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two emirates.

  2. A-02

    How much of the water supply is non-renewable groundwater and how much is desalinated, emirate by emirate, and how fast is groundwater drawn down?

    INI-ARE-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination; first output: supply-source register by emirate.

  3. A-03

    How much fuel is burned for power and desalination as nuclear and solar grow, and what does the 2026 generation mix show?

    INI-ARE-ENE-03 · power mix and gas transition; first output: generation and fuel table for 2026.

  4. A-04

    How concentrated are food imports, by commodity and origin, and how many days of reserves exist?

    INI-ARE-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  5. A-05

    How is heat illness counted among residents and outdoor workers?

    INI-ARE-HLT-05 · heat and outdoor work; first output: definitions and counting-rule note.

  6. A-06

    How do flash floods and urban drainage interact across the emirates?

    INI-ARE-CLI-02 · workstream; first output: event register 2018–2026.

  7. A-07

    What would a quantified pathway from the 2022 inventory to the 2035 aim need from power, industry and buildings?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-ARE-CLI-01Heat–power–water continuityInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-ARE-WAT-02Groundwater and desalinationInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-ARE-ENE-03Power mix and gas transitionInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-ARE-FOO-04Food import exposureInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-ARE-HLT-05Heat and outdoor workInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-ARE-CLI-01aTwo-emirate heat, power and water dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-ARE-2027-01Humid summer heat peak Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

United Arab Emirates is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the United Arab Emirates from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ARE-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-ARE-2027-01 · Humid summer heat peak Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-002 · climate aimINI-ARE-ENE-03power mix and gas transitionPUBLIC
ENE-003 · generationINI-ARE-ENE-03power mix and gas transitionPUBLIC
WAT-005 · groundwaterINI-ARE-WAT-02supply-source registerPUBLIC
FOO-007 · food importsINI-ARE-FOO-04import exposurePUBLIC
HLT-009 · heat and outdoor workINI-ARE-HLT-05heat and outdoor workPUBLIC
FIN-011 · fuel revenueINI-ARE-CLI-01 · key F reviewfiscal exposurePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-ARE-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather alerts and rainfallNational Centre of Meteorologyreal timeRSK-ARE-CLI-003
Public emergency alertsNational Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authorityevent drivenRSK-ARE-CLI-003
Midday-break inspectionsMinistry of Human Resources and EmiratisationseasonalHLT-009
Generation and capacity dataEmber · IRENAannualENE-003
Population estimatesFCSC · Dubai Data and Statistics Establishmentannualprofile
Fiscal and growth outlookIMFannualFIN-011
Transparency reportsMinistry of Climate Change and EnvironmentbiennialCLI-001

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-ARE-001Gas share of generation fell from 97% to 68% between 2019 and 202517CORROBORATEDENEinitiative A-03
SIG-ARE-002Rain of 254 mm in under 24 hours in April 2024 was followed by an AED 30 billion drainage programme2327CORROBORATEDCLI · INFinitiative A-06
SIG-ARE-003A reading of 51.6 °C was reported in May 202525CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTinitiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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