Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Internal renewable freshwater per person

14.9m³

Reported freshwater withdrawals were 1,510% of internal renewable resources. In Abu Dhabi groundwater was 60% of water consumed.

Reported2022FAO AQUASTAT via World Bank¹⁰ · EAD²⁰

ENE · Energy

Gas share of electricity generation

68%

Down from 97% in 2019. Nuclear gave 21% and solar 10%. Total generation rose from 138 to 184 TWh.

Reported2025Ember¹⁷

FOO · Food

Share of domestic food consumption that is imported

≥80%

Arable land is 0.8% of land area and cereal production was about 20,000 tonnes in 2024.

Reported2025IMF⁵ · FAO via World Bank¹³

HLT · Health

Infractions found in midday-break inspections

51infractions

From 134,000 inspections in 2024, against 96 the year before. Fines are AED 5,000 per worker, up to AED 50,000. Heat-illness counts are not bound.

Reported2024Ministry via press²⁶

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

19.2%

Marine protected areas 12.0%. Mangrove cover is 201 km².

Reported2025WDPA via World Bank¹² · NDC¹

SYS · Cross-system

Real non-hydrocarbon GDP growth, projected

4.6%

Real GDP growth is projected at 4.8% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026. Public debt is 34.5% of GDP.

Reported2025 proj.IMF⁵

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Internal renewable freshwater 14.9 m³ per person; Abu Dhabi groundwater 60% of water consumed.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 3
ENE	Gas 68% of 2025 generation; 7,907 MW of renewables at end 2025.	ENE → WAT, HLT	Reported EQL 4
FOO	At least 80% of food imported; arable land 0.8% of land area.	FOO ← TRD, WAT	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Life expectancy 83.1 years in 2024; heat-illness series not bound.	HLT ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
BIO	Protected land 19.2% and sea 12.0% in 2025; mangrove 201 km².	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025; 254 mm of rain in under 24 hours in April 2024.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 3
INF	Desalination, grid and drainage networks; condition and redundancy not bound.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	Fuel 68% of merchandise exports; public debt 34.5% of GDP in 2025.	FIN ← TRD, CLI	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre demand for power and water not bound.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Mining and materials supply chains not bound for this edition.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	Fuel is the main merchandise export; most food is imported.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound heat, power and water stress	humid summer peak	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	internal renewable water 14.9 m³ a person; Abu Dhabi groundwater 60%¹⁰²⁰	aquifer drawdown; plant outage	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	gas 68% of generation¹⁷	peak demand; fuel supply	GOOD
GS-03	Food	at least 80% imported⁵	import and price shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	midday outdoor-work break²⁶	heat surge; care capacity	THIN
GS-05	Finance	non-oil primary deficit 15.1% of non-hydrocarbon GDP⁵	fuel price and revenue shock	GOOD
GS-06	Development	population 11.3 million, up 5.6% in 2024⁷	service demand	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	reading of 51.6 °C in May 2025²⁵	heat and flash flood	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	April 2024 rain; 85% of residents in flood-prone areas²³²⁴	urban flooding	PARTIAL
GS-09	Infrastructure	AED 30 billion drainage programme in Dubai²⁷	single points of failure	THIN
GS-10	Cities	86% urban; Dubai 4.58 million⁶⁸	urban flooding and heat	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected land 19.2%, sea 12.0%¹²	condition outside reserves	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national observing network	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	third NDC; federal climate law¹²⁹	coordination across federal and emirate bodies	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	humid-heat and rain-attribution research²⁴³¹	translation to emirates	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Executive Council of Abu Dhabi (ed.), Executive Council Resolution No. 182 of 2022 concerning the General Policy for the Management, Regulation and Protection of Groundwater in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 13 December 2022. Observation year 2022. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/uae221944E.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: AG.LND.ARBL.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS, AG.PRD.CREL.MT and NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAOSTAT and national accounts. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2024. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT, accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation (ed.), midday outdoor-work break, 15 June to 15 September 2025 (12:30 to 15:00; 134,000 inspections in 2024, 51 infractions), reported in “UAE midday break for workers starts today,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 15 June 2025. Observation years 2024–2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/15/uae-midday-break-for-workers-starts-today/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.LND.PTLD.ZS and ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from Protected Planet (WDPA and WD-OECM, UNEP-WCMC and IUCN). World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (ed.), Total population residing in the UAE and demographic growth rates, 2000–2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GLMM, Cambridge, 2025 (11,294,243 residents in 2024). Observation year 2024. https://gulfmigration.grc.net/uae-total-population-residing-in-the-uae-and-demographic-growth-rates-2000-2024/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
25National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement that May 2025 was the hottest May on record (mean maximum 40.4 °C; 51.6 °C at Sweihan on 24 May 2025), reported in “UAE has hottest May on record after temperatures top 50C,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 3 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/03/uae-has-hottest-may-on-record-after-temperatures-top-50c, accessed 2026-11-03.back
23National Centre of Meteorology (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (254 mm in under 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla, highest since records began in 1949), reported in “UAE witnesses largest amount of rainfall in 75 years,” Gulf News, Dubai, April 2024. Observation year 2024. https://gulfnews.com/uae/weather/uae-witnesses-largest-amount-of-rainfall-in-75-years-1.1713319645595, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24World Weather Attribution (ed.), Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms. Imperial College London and partners, London, 2024. Rapid study, not peer-reviewed. Observation year 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms, accessed 2026-11-03.back
27Dubai Protocol Department (ed.), Mohammed bin Rashid launches the AED 30 billion Tasreef project to raise Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700%. Government of Dubai, Dubai, 24 June 2024. Observation years 2024–2033. https://protocol.dubai.ae/en/media-listing/news-events/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-aed30-billion-tasreef-project-to-enhance-dubais-rainwater-drainage-capacity-by-700/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS and SM.POP.TOTL.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from UN World Population Prospects and the UN International Migrant Stock. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment (ed.), Dubai population at the end of 2025 (about 4.58 million, up 7.5%), as reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 30 July 2026. Observation year 2025. https://thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/07/30/dubai-population-surpassed-45-million-by-end-of-2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Government of the United Arab Emirates (ed.), Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects, as described in “Landmark UAE climate law aims to curb emissions and boost net zero ambitions,” The National, Abu Dhabi, 2 June 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/06/02/landmark-uae-climate-law-aims-to-curb-emissions-and-boost-net-zero-ambitions, accessed 2026-11-03.back
31C. Raymond, T. Matthews and R. M. Horton, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance,” Science Advances, vol. 6, no. 19, eaaw1838, 2020. Observation years 1979–2017. Abstract read through Europe PMC (doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838), accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838 back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In United Arab Emirates Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Arab Emirates’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARE-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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