- United Arab Emirates 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1The United Arab Emirates’ risk is heat, water and supply at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Humid summer heat peak with grid and desalination stress
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Fall in the gas share of generation, 2019 to 2025 | 97.357 − 68.039 | ≈ 29.3 points |
| (2) | Growth in total generation, 2019 to 2025 | 184.411 ÷ 138.454 − 1 | ≈ 33.2% |
| (3) | Gap between the 2022 net inventory and the 2035 aim | 195.185 − 103.5 | ≈ 91.7 Mt |
| (4) | Growth in residents, 2023 to 2024 | 11,294,243 ÷ 10,678,556 − 1 | ≈ 5.8% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-ARE-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the United Arab Emirates as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for emirate or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-ARE-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-ARE-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHG emissions | 2022 | Nov 2025 | biennial | second report |
| Population | 2024 | not stated | annual | annual |
| Electricity mix | 2025 | Apr 2026 | annual | annual |
| Renewable capacity | 2025 | 2026 via press | annual | 2027 |
| Groundwater policy | 2022 | Dec 2022 | policy | not scheduled |
| Economic outlook | 2025–2026 | Dec 2025 | annual | 2026 consultation |
| Extreme rain | 2024 | Apr 2024 | per event | per event |
| Heat reading | 2025 | Jun 2025 via press | per event | per event |
| Protected areas | 2025 | 2025 | periodic | periodic |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | PARTIAL | annual anomaly; heat-illness link |
| Energy | GOOD | fuel burned for power and desalination |
| Water | PARTIAL | desalination share and capacity in use |
| Food | THIN | import share by commodity; reserves |
| Health | THIN | heat deaths and illness series |
| Biodiversity | THIN | condition outside reserves |
| Finance | PARTIAL | insurance cover |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment to the UNFCCC, November 2024. Periodic. Role: binds the 2035 aim, the 2019 base of 196.3 Mt, the sector pathways and several water and capacity statements, each as a national statement.
EVD-ARE-001
Third NDC1
Issued by Ember. Annual. Role: binds the 2019–2025 generation mix by source. The data file was read from the issuer’s public release, not through a press report.
EVD-ARE-002
Ember yearly electricity data17
| Dimension | EVD-ARE-001 | EVD-ARE-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | economy-wide, all domestic sectors | national, by source |
| Timeliness | submitted November 2024 | 2025 data released in 2026 |
| Revision | periodic; the 2019 base moved from 225 to 196.3 Mt2 | annual back-revision |
| Method transparency | inventory method described; report text and tables differ in places3 | method published by the issuer |
| External validation | independent assessment exists30 | not bound |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| BTR | Biennial Transparency Report |
| DEWA | Dubai Electricity and Water Authority |
| EAD | Environment Agency Abu Dhabi |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| FCSC | Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| MOCCAE | Ministry of Climate Change and Environment |
| MoHRE | Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation |
| NCEMA | National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority |
| NCM | National Centre of Meteorology |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| WDPA | World Database on Protected Areas |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-ARE-HTW-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Emirate notes | atlas cards for every emirate | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, gas share of electricity generation
- Construct
- gas-fired generation divided by total electricity generation
- Unit
- per cent
- Scope
- calendar year, national, including net imports
- Source
- Ember yearly electricity data17
- Revision
- annual back-revision by the data issuer
- Known limits
- Ember’s country page rounds differently from the dataset18; 2026 not bound
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), The United Arab Emirates’ Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Accelerating Action Towards Mission 1.5C. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, November 2024. Observation years 2019–2035. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-11/UAE-NDC3.0.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data: generation by country and source (release_generation_yearly_global), United Arab Emirates 2019–2025. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2025. https://files.ember-energy.org/public-downloads/generation/outputs/release_generation_yearly_global.csv, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), Third Update of Second Nationally Determined Contribution for the UAE. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation years 2019–2030. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2023-07/Third%20Update%20of%20Second%20NDC%20for%20the%20UAE_v15.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (ed.), United Arab Emirates’ First Biennial Transparency Report 2024. Submission to the UNFCCC, Abu Dhabi, submitted 6 November 2025. Observation years 2019–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE’s%20First%20BTR%20-%20Submission%20Document.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. The text (195,065 Gg) and Table 1 (195,185 Gg) differ for 2022; Table 1 is used.back
- 30Climate Action Tracker (ed.), UAE: country assessment, assessment dated 15 November 2024. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, 2024. Observation year 2024. The page rates the 2030 target of the 2023 update; a separate 2035 analysis is not read. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: ER.H2O.INTR.PC, ER.H2O.INTR.K3, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS, ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS and ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS for the United Arab Emirates, from FAO AQUASTAT. World Bank, Washington DC, database updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2022. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/ARE/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5International Monetary Fund (ed.), United Arab Emirates: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director, IMF Country Report No. 25/327. IMF, Washington DC, December 2025. Observation years 2024–2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2025/english/1areea2025001-source-pdf.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Ember (ed.), United Arab Emirates: country page (32% low-carbon, 68% fossil), last updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year not stated on the page. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/united-arab-emirates/, accessed 2026-11-03.back