Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Harvest shortfall under high input costs
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 49 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 4European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  7. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, and monthly commodity price data (landing page opened, release of 3 November 2026; the outlook report itself was not opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8WMO (ed.), El Niño/La Niña Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  9. 9WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  11. 11Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  12. 12FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 7
  14. 14FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., Climate change has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  20. 20IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  21. 21FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the publication site blocked access, and application dates were not checked. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2019/6 on veterinary medicinal products, Official Journal of the European Union, 2019, cited from memory; the 3 September 2026 date of the antimicrobial import requirements comes from the opened FAO Food Price Index release [2]. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22000:2018, Food safety management systems: requirements for any organisation in the food chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: WTO, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (1994), cited from memory. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 1994. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15/4 (December 2022), cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bezner Kerr, R. et al., Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products, in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 5. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Willett, W. et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet 393, 447 to 492, 2019, cited from memory; the journal site blocked access. Elsevier. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers, Science 360, 987 to 992, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Springmann, M. et al., Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature 562, 519 to 525, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gaupp, F. et al., Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure, Nature Climate Change 10, 54 to 57, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Food Systems Summit +4 stocktake (2025), cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCCD (ed.), Global Land Outlook, second edition. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  49. 49Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Food Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-03
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 food edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-03NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-03-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-03 edition Reports Global Food 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-03 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Food and Agrifood Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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