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Italy 2026

Italien

Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.

Read the editionGefahrenexposition
Befunde
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
3 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Quellen
40
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Italy in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 58.9millionpopulation, 1 January 2025 [6]
  • 363Mt CO₂eemissions, 2024 [1]
  • 41.2%renewables in electricity demand, 2024 [7]
  • 18,010deathsheat-related, summer 2022 [4]
  • ≈94%municipalities exposed to hydrogeological hazard [11]
  • 42.4%water lost in networks, 2022 [12]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATWasser3 findings

    42.4% Water lost in municipal distribution networks, 2022. Gemeldet

    Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023.

  2. ENEEnergie1 finding

    41.2% Renewable share of electricity demand, 2024. Gemeldet

    Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022.

  3. INFInfrastrukturnot assessed

    Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes.

  4. FOOErnährung0 findings

    ≈14% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. Gemeldet

    A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South.

  5. HLTGesundheit2 findings

    18,010 deaths Heat-related deaths, summer, 2022. Gemeldet

    18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations.

  6. BIOBiodiversität0 findings

    ≈160k hectares Area burned by Waldbrand, 2021. Gemeldet

    Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; Waldbrand in the South and islands.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Geopolitics 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-ITA-CLI-001

    Extreme Hitze

    GemeldetEQL 4

    Treiber
    heatwaves and tropical nights
    Exposition
    older people; dense cities
    Verwundbarkeit
    one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling
    Kapazität
    heat-health alert system; summer plans
    Kaskade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
    Horizont
    seasonal

    Atmosphäre und Wetter

  • RSK-ITA-WAT-002

    Drought in the Po basin and the South

    GemeldetEQL 4

    Treiber
    dry winters; low Alpine snowpack; hot summers
    Exposition
    irrigation, hydropower, drinking water
    Verwundbarkeit
    network losses of 42.4% [12]
    Kapazität
    basin water-severity observatories [24]
    Kaskade
    WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT
    Horizont
    seasonal · 5 years

    Wassersysteme

  • RSK-ITA-CLI-003

    Floods and landslides

    GemeldetEQL 4

    Treiber
    cloudbursts; autumn storms
    Exposition
    6.8 million in medium flood hazard; 1.3 million in high landslide hazard [11]
    Verwundbarkeit
    building on unstable slopes and floodplains
    Kapazität
    regional alert centres; civil protection
    Kaskade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizont
    jährlich

    WassersystemeAtmosphäre und Wetter

  • RSK-ITA-GEO-004

    Earthquakes and volcanic unrest

    GemeldetEQL 4

    Treiber
    active faults; Campi Flegrei uplift [16]
    Exposition
    about 40% of buildings in medium-high seismic zones [13]
    Verwundbarkeit
    older building stock; dense settlement
    Kapazität
    seismic monitoring; civil protection; evacuation plans
    Kaskade
    GEO → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizont
    any time

    Feste Erde

Scenario · SCN-ITA-DFL-01

Drought-to-flood year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

7 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows
  2. 2WAT → FOOirrigation cuts and heat reduce harvests
  3. 3WAT → ENEhydro output falls; more gas generation
  4. 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
  5. 5CLI → BIOwildfires in the South and the islands
  6. 6CLI → INFautumn cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core Systeme. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
VonWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongMittelStrong
ENEMittel·StrongStrongMittel
FOOMittelWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakMittel·Weak
BIOStrongMittelStrongMittel·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → WAT → FOOdrought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvestsGemeldet
  2. CLI → WAT → INFcloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslidesGemeldet
  3. CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older peopleGemeldet
  4. ENE → FINa gas supply shock raises costs for industry and householdsGemeldet
  5. BIO → FOOXylella kills olive groves in ApuliaGemeldet

05 · Findings

Every finding of Italy.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Italy
IDAusgabeSector or systemStatusStatement
CLI-001ItalienCLI Climate forcing GemeldetGreenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990.
CLI-002ItalienCLI Climate forcing GemeldetTransport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies.
CLI-003ItalienCLI Climate forcing Gemeldet2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record.
HLT-004ItalienHLT Gesundheit GemeldetItaly recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country.
HLT-005ItalienHLT Gesundheit GemeldetA further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023.
WAT-006ItalienWAT Wasser GemeldetThe May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion.
WAT-007ItalienWAT Wasser GemeldetAbout 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas.
WAT-008ItalienWAT Wasser Gemeldet42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.
ENE-009ItalienENE Energie GemeldetRenewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
GEO-010ItalienGEO Geopolitics GemeldetAbout 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 Erdbeben killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025.
FIN-011ItalienFIN Finanzen GemeldetOnly 7.3% of homes are insured against Erdbeben and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began.
SYS-012ItalienSYS Systemisch Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Italy.

The desks’ editions for Italy
BüroAusgabeStatusKennung
GCRI Systems EvidenceItaly 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Italy 2026In Vorbereitung
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Italy 2026In Vorbereitung
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Italy 2026In Vorbereitung

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidenzschluss30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Korrekturenafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStatusVeränderungNotice
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,keine
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
LückeShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ita/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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