Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Italy 2026
イタリア
Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
- 調査結果
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 3 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 出典
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Italy in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水3 findings
42.4% Water lost in municipal distribution networks, 2022. □報告値
Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023.
- ENEエネルギー1 finding
41.2% Renewable share of electricity demand, 2024. □報告値
Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022.
- INFインフラnot assessed
Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes.
- FOO食料0 findings
≈14% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. □報告値
A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South.
- HLT健康2 findings
18,010 deaths Heat-related deaths, summer, 2022. □報告値
18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations.
- BIO生物多様性0 findings
≈160k hectares Area burned by 林野火災, 2021. □報告値
Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; 林野火災 in the South and islands.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Geopolitics 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-ITA-CLI-001
極端な暑さ
□報告値EQL 4
- 要因
- heatwaves and tropical nights
- 曝露
- older people; dense cities
- 脆弱性
- one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling
- 能力
- heat-health alert system; summer plans
- カスケード
- CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
- ホライズン
- seasonal
RSK-ITA-WAT-002
Drought in the Po basin and the South
□報告値EQL 4
RSK-ITA-CLI-003
Floods and landslides
□報告値EQL 4
- 要因
- cloudbursts; autumn storms
- 脆弱性
- building on unstable slopes and floodplains
- 能力
- regional alert centres; civil protection
- カスケード
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- ホライズン
- 年次
RSK-ITA-GEO-004
Earthquakes and volcanic unrest
□報告値EQL 4
Scenario · SCN-ITA-DFL-01
Drought-to-flood year
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
7 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation cuts and heat reduce harvests
- 3WAT → ENEhydro output falls; more gas generation
- 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
- 5CLI → BIOwildfires in the South and the islands
- 6CLI → INFautumn cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core システム. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 起点 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中程度 | Strong |
| ENE | 中程度 | · | Strong | Strong | 中程度 |
| FOO | 中程度 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中程度 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中程度 | Strong | 中程度 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvests□報告値
- CLI → WAT → INFcloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides□報告値
- CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older people□報告値
- ENE → FINa gas supply shock raises costs for industry and households□報告値
- BIO → FOOXylella kills olive groves in Apulia□報告値
05 · Findings
Every finding of Italy.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版 | Sector or system | ステータス | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | イタリア | CLI Climate forcing | □ 報告値 | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990. |
| CLI-002 | イタリア | CLI Climate forcing | □ 報告値 | Transport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies. |
| CLI-003 | イタリア | CLI Climate forcing | □ 報告値 | 2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record. |
| HLT-004 | イタリア | HLT 健康 | □ 報告値 | Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country. |
| HLT-005 | イタリア | HLT 健康 | □ 報告値 | A further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023. |
| WAT-006 | イタリア | WAT 水 | □ 報告値 | The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion. |
| WAT-007 | イタリア | WAT 水 | □ 報告値 | About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas. |
| WAT-008 | イタリア | WAT 水 | □ 報告値 | 42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022. |
| ENE-009 | イタリア | ENE エネルギー | □ 報告値 | Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023. |
| GEO-010 | イタリア | GEO Geopolitics | □ 報告値 | About 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 地震 killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025. |
| FIN-011 | イタリア | FIN 金融 | □ 報告値 | Only 7.3% of homes are insured against 地震 and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began. |
| SYS-012 | イタリア | SYS システミック | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Italy.
| デスク | 版 | 状況 | 識別子 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Italy 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Italy 2026 | 準備中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Italy 2026 | 準備中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Italy 2026 | 準備中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03エビデンス締め切り30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07訂正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 読むThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 貢献するSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 審査Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
訂正履歴
| バージョン | 日付 | 状況 | 変化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | なし |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| ギャップ | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ita/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Italy.
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