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Italy 2026

Italy

Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Findings
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
3 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
40
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Italy in six readings.

Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 58.9millionpopulation, 1 January 2025 [6]
  • 363Mt CO₂eemissions, 2024 [1]
  • 41.2%renewables in electricity demand, 2024 [7]
  • 18,010deathsheat-related, summer 2022 [4]
  • ≈94%municipalities exposed to hydrogeological hazard [11]
  • 42.4%water lost in networks, 2022 [12]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATWater3 findings

    42.4% Water lost in municipal distribution networks, 2022. Reported

    Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023.

  2. ENEEnergy1 finding

    41.2% Renewable share of electricity demand, 2024. Reported

    Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022.

  3. INFInfrastructurenot assessed

    Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes.

  4. FOOFood0 findings

    ≈14% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. Reported

    A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South.

  5. HLTHealth2 findings

    18,010 deaths Heat-related deaths, summer, 2022. Reported

    18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations.

  6. BIOBiodiversity0 findings

    ≈160k hectares Area burned by wildfire, 2021. Reported

    Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; wildfire in the South and islands.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Geopolitics 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-ITA-CLI-001

    Extreme heat

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    heatwaves and tropical nights
    Exposure
    older people; dense cities
    Vulnerability
    one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling
    Capacity
    heat-health alert system; summer plans
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Atmosphere and weather

  • RSK-ITA-WAT-002

    Drought in the Po basin and the South

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    dry winters; low Alpine snowpack; hot summers
    Exposure
    irrigation, hydropower, drinking water
    Vulnerability
    network losses of 42.4% [12]
    Capacity
    basin water-severity observatories [24]
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal · 5 years

    Water systems

  • RSK-ITA-CLI-003

    Floods and landslides

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    cloudbursts; autumn storms
    Exposure
    6.8 million in medium flood hazard; 1.3 million in high landslide hazard [11]
    Vulnerability
    building on unstable slopes and floodplains
    Capacity
    regional alert centres; civil protection
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systemsAtmosphere and weather

  • RSK-ITA-GEO-004

    Earthquakes and volcanic unrest

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    active faults; Campi Flegrei uplift [16]
    Exposure
    about 40% of buildings in medium-high seismic zones [13]
    Vulnerability
    older building stock; dense settlement
    Capacity
    seismic monitoring; civil protection; evacuation plans
    Cascade
    GEO → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    any time

    Solid Earth

Scenario · SCN-ITA-DFL-01

Drought-to-flood year

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

7 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows
  2. 2WAT → FOOirrigation cuts and heat reduce harvests
  3. 3WAT → ENEhydro output falls; more gas generation
  4. 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
  5. 5CLI → BIOwildfires in the South and the islands
  6. 6CLI → INFautumn cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → WAT → FOOdrought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvestsReported
  2. CLI → WAT → INFcloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslidesReported
  3. CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older peopleReported
  4. ENE → FINa gas supply shock raises costs for industry and householdsReported
  5. BIO → FOOXylella kills olive groves in ApuliaReported

05 · Findings

Every finding of Italy.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Italy
IDEditionSector or systemStatusStatement
CLI-001ItalyCLI Climate forcing ReportedGreenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990.
CLI-002ItalyCLI Climate forcing ReportedTransport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies.
CLI-003ItalyCLI Climate forcing Reported2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record.
HLT-004ItalyHLT Health ReportedItaly recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country.
HLT-005ItalyHLT Health ReportedA further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023.
WAT-006ItalyWAT Water ReportedThe May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion.
WAT-007ItalyWAT Water ReportedAbout 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas.
WAT-008ItalyWAT Water Reported42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.
ENE-009ItalyENE Energy ReportedRenewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
GEO-010ItalyGEO Geopolitics ReportedAbout 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 earthquake killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025.
FIN-011ItalyFIN Finance ReportedOnly 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began.
SYS-012ItalySYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Italy.

The desks’ editions for Italy
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceItaly 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Italy 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Italy 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Italy 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Correctionsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ita/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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