Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Italy 2026
ایتالیا
Italy enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30% below 1990, but with transport emissions still above their 1990 level and the 2030 effort-sharing target out of reach on current policies. Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024, and Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
- یافته‌ها
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 3 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- منابع
- 40
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Italy in six readings.
Six readings that frame the baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATآب3 findings
42.4% Water lost in municipal distribution networks, 2022. □گزارش‌شده
Network losses of 42.4%; drought on the Po in 2022; floods on dried soils in 2023.
- ENEانرژی1 finding
41.2% Renewable share of electricity demand, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
Renewables met 41.2% of demand in 2024; Russian gas replaced after 2022.
- INFزیرساختnot assessed
Roads, rail and buildings exposed to landslides, floods and earthquakes.
- FOOغذا0 findings
≈14% Share of EU agricultural output, 2024. □گزارش‌شده
A leading EU producer; drought and Xylella stress the South.
- HLTسلامت2 findings
18,010 deaths Heat-related deaths, summer, 2022. □گزارش‌شده
18,010 heat deaths in 2022; one of Europe’s oldest populations.
- BIOتنوع زیستی0 findings
≈160k hectares Area burned by آتش‌سوزی جنگلی, 2021. □گزارش‌شده
Rich biodiversity; about a fifth of land in Natura 2000; آتش‌سوزی جنگلی in the South and islands.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Geopolitics 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-ITA-CLI-001
گرمای شدید
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- heatwaves and tropical nights
- مواجهه
- older people; dense cities
- آسیب‌پذیری
- one of Europe’s oldest populations; housing without cooling
- ظرفیت
- heat-health alert system; summer plans
- آبشار
- CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-ITA-WAT-002
Drought in the Po basin and the South
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
RSK-ITA-CLI-003
Floods and landslides
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
- محرک
- cloudbursts; autumn storms
- آسیب‌پذیری
- building on unstable slopes and floodplains
- ظرفیت
- regional alert centres; civil protection
- آبشار
- CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-ITA-GEO-004
Earthquakes and volcanic unrest
□گزارش‌شدهEQL 4
Scenario · SCN-ITA-DFL-01
Drought-to-flood year
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
7 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATlow snowpack and heat cut the Po to record low flows
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation cuts and heat reduce harvests
- 3WAT → ENEhydro output falls; more gas generation
- 4CLI → HLTheat deaths among older people rise
- 5CLI → BIOwildfires in the South and the islands
- 6CLI → INFautumn cloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Italy matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سامانه‌ها. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| از | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط | Strong |
| ENE | متوسط | · | Strong | Strong | متوسط |
| FOO | متوسط | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | متوسط | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | متوسط | Strong | متوسط | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought on the Po cuts irrigation and harvests□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → WAT → INFcloudbursts on dried soils trigger floods and landslides□گزارش‌شده
- CLI → HLTheatwaves raise deaths among older people□گزارش‌شده
- ENE → FINa gas supply shock raises costs for industry and households□گزارش‌شده
- BIO → FOOXylella kills olive groves in Apulia□گزارش‌شده
05 · Findings
Every finding of Italy.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | ویراست | Sector or system | وضعیت | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | ایتالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990. |
| CLI-002 | ایتالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | Transport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies. |
| CLI-003 | ایتالیا | CLI Climate forcing | □ گزارش‌شده | 2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record. |
| HLT-004 | ایتالیا | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country. |
| HLT-005 | ایتالیا | HLT سلامت | □ گزارش‌شده | A further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023. |
| WAT-006 | ایتالیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion. |
| WAT-007 | ایتالیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas. |
| WAT-008 | ایتالیا | WAT آب | □ گزارش‌شده | 42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022. |
| ENE-009 | ایتالیا | ENE انرژی | □ گزارش‌شده | Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023. |
| GEO-010 | ایتالیا | GEO Geopolitics | □ گزارش‌شده | About 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 زمین‌لرزه killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025. |
| FIN-011 | ایتالیا | FIN مالی | □ گزارش‌شده | Only 7.3% of homes are insured against زمین‌لرزه and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began. |
| SYS-012 | ایتالیا | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Italy.
| Desk | ویراست | وضعیت | شناسه |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Italy 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | رایزنی عمومی: ایتالیا 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | آمادگی سرمایه‌ای: ایتالیا 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Italy 2026 | در دست آماده‌سازی |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03بستن شواهد30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07اصلاحیه‌هاafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-ITA-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- بخوانیدThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- مشارکتSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- داوریJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
سیاههٔ اصلاحات
| نسخه | Date | وضعیت | تغییر | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| شکاف | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/ita/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Italy.
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