- African Union 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | People without electricity, 2024 (derived) | (100 − 55.1) × 1,289.9 million | about 579 million |
| (2) | People without clean cooking, 2024 (derived) | (100 − 22.9) × 1,289.9 million | about 994 million |
| (3) | Recent pace of electricity access, 2018 to 2024 | (55.1 − 46.4) ÷ 6 | 1.5 points a year |
| (4) | Pace needed for 100% by 2030 | (100 − 55.1) ÷ 6 | 7.5 points a year |
| (5) | People undernourished, 2024 (derived) | 22.3% × 1,289.9 million | about 288 million |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-AU-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the African Union as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for member state or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-AU-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 51 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-AU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Access to electricity | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Clean cooking | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Undernourishment | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Renewable electricity output | 2021 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Renewable final energy | 2020 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Safe water and sanitation | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Freshwater withdrawals | 2022 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Forest area | 2023 | Oct 2026 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| Climate record | 2024 | May 2025 | annual | not stated in sources read |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | THIN | numeric values from the WMO report |
| Energy | PARTIAL | power capacity by technology; North Africa |
| Health | PARTIAL | outbreak counts; care capacity |
| Water | PARTIAL | drought extent and basin-level use |
| Food | PARTIAL | import shares of food and fertiliser |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | habitat condition |
| Finance | THIN | disaster losses and insured share |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Published by the World Bank in World Development Indicators for the Sub-Saharan Africa group. Annual, observation years to 2024, data updated 8 October 2026. Role: binds ENE-002 and the access-pace figures.
EVD-AU-001
Access to electricity17
Published by the World Bank in World Development Indicators, carrying the FAO series for the Sub-Saharan Africa group. Annual, observation years to 2024. Role: binds FOO-005 and the derived count of people.
EVD-AU-002
Prevalence of undernourishment16
| Dimension | EVD-AU-001 | EVD-AU-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | Sub-Saharan Africa group only; 2025 value null | Sub-Saharan Africa group only; 2025 value null |
| Timeliness | about 22 months after the year | about 22 months after the year |
| Revision | not stated in sources read | not stated in sources read |
| Method transparency | indicator definition on the source page | indicator definition on the source page |
| External validation | not stated in sources read | not stated in sources read |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AU | African Union |
| AUDA-NEPAD | African Union Development Agency |
| CAADP | Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme |
| CBD | Convention on Biological Diversity |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| ILO | International Labour Organization |
| PIDA | Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa |
| SDG | Sustainable Development Goal |
| UN DESA | United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs |
| UNDRR | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-AU-CLI-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Member state notes | atlas cards for every member state | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, people with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa
- Construct
- share of the population with access to electricity
- Unit
- percent of population
- Scope
- World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa group
- Source
- World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS17
- Revision
- revised with each World Development Indicators update
- Known limits
- the 2025 value is null at close; the group excludes North Africa
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
- 42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
- 3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back