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Compound drought, price and outbreak year

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables7 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
failed rains and heat across several regions of the continent, with high food prices and a cholera or similar outbreak in the same year
Analogues
the undernourishment trend since 201816; the WMO decade record2
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → FOO

    drought and heat cut crop and livestock output

    IPCC assessment38

  2. 2

    FOO → HLT

    prices rise and undernourishment grows

    trend16

  3. 3

    CLI → WAT

    low flows cut safe water supply

    water access22

  4. 4

    WAT → HLT

    unsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk

    sanitation23

  5. 5

    ENE → HLT

    power and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response

    access1718

  6. 6

    HLT → FIN

    public budgets absorb relief and response costs

    to be bound in 2027

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01 would travel through African Union’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to foodDrought and heat cut crop and livestock output. Analogue or source: IPCC assessment [38].Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 1
02 Food to healthPrices rise and undernourishment grows. Analogue or source: trend [16].Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 2
03 Climate to waterLow flows cut safe water supply. Analogue or source: water access [22].Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 3
04 Water to healthUnsafe water and weak sanitation raise outbreak risk. Analogue or source: sanitation [23].Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 4
05 Energy to healthPower and cooking gaps limit clinic and household response. Analogue or source: access [17] [18].Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 5
06 Health to financePublic budgets absorb relief and response costs. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.Edition AU, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: African Union 2026, scenario SCN-AU-CLI-01 (2026); African Union 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
  4. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Compound drought, price and outbreak year. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind African Union.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Drought

Low river flows cut irrigation, cooling water and hydropower at once; food prices, nutrition and ecosystems follow.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.68 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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