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Power loss that overlaps a telecom or cloud failure

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-STRATEGIC-LIFELINES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Lifelines fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Power loss that overlaps a telecom or cloud failure
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a regional power loss during a heat wave, coinciding with a software or cloud outage at a shared vendor
Analogues
Iberian blackout, 2025; global software outage, 202414
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    ENE → INF

    voltage and frequency events trip generation; the grid separates

    2025

  2. 2

    INF → DAT

    exchanges and data centres run on batteries and generators

    2025

  3. 3

    DAT → INF

    a vendor outage removes remote management and payment services

    2024

  4. 4

    INF → WAT

    pumping and treatment stop or run on reserves

    2026

  5. 5

    INF → HLT

    hospitals move to emergency power; dispatch and records degrade

    2024 · 2025

  6. 6

    INF → FIN

    payments and markets pause; losses accumulate

    2024

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01 would travel through Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Energy to infrastructureVoltage and frequency events trip generation; the grid separates. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to datExchanges and data centres run on batteries and generators. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 2
03 DAT to infrastructureA vendor outage removes remote management and payment services. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to waterPumping and treatment stop or run on reserves. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 4
05 Infrastructure to healthHospitals move to emergency power; dispatch and records degrade. Analogue or source: 2024 · 2025.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 5
06 Infrastructure to financePayments and markets pause; losses accumulate. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition SR-02, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems 2026, scenario SCN-SR02-PWR-01 (2026); Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4Microsoft (ed.), Helping our customers through the CrowdStrike outage (blog post of 20 July 2024; estimate of 8.5 million Windows devices). Microsoft, Redmond. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Power loss that overlaps a telecom or cloud failure. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-LIFELINES-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Infrastructure and its partners

Infrastructure gives pipes, dams and treatment works to water (0.6), transmission and fuel logistics to energy (0.6) and access to care to health (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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