Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Trade moves through a few narrow places
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Supply Chains and Chokepoints Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Average seaborne haul in 2024, derived from ton-miles and tons | 66,781 billion ton-miles ÷ 12,720 million tons | ≈ 5,250 miles |
| (2) | Share of February 2026 Middle East crude oil production shut in, March to June 2026 average | 9.4 ÷ 25.2 | ≈ 37% |
| (3) | Fall in Hormuz daily transits, February to March 2026 | (130 − 6) ÷ 130 | ≈ 95% |
| (4) | Ratio of Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to Rotterdam container rates, 29 October 2026 | 7,514 ÷ 3,686 | ≈ 2.0 |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Supply Chains and Chokepoints Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SR03-SUPPLYCHAINS · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent trade as a network with narrow places and the mechanisms by which disruptions spread between shipping lanes, energy, fertiliser, minerals and freight
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
2strong
documented within one season
4moderate
documented, buffered
14weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Supply Chains and Chokepoints Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaborne trade volume and ton-miles | 2024 | Sep 2025 | annual | Review of Maritime Transport 2026 |
| Canal shares of trade | 2023 to 2024 | 2024 | annual | next UNCTAD review |
| Chokepoint oil flows | 2024 | Mar 2026 | annual | next EIA update |
| Hormuz quarterly flows | 4Q25 to 2Q26 | Oct 2026 | monthly | 10 Nov 2026 |
| Hormuz daily transits | Feb to Mar 2026 | Mar to Apr 2026 | per event | not found after Q2 2026 |
| Panama Canal traffic | FY2025 | Oct 2025 | annual | FY2026 results |
| WTO trade outlook | 2026 | Oct 2026 | twice a year | spring 2027 |
| Container freight | 29 Oct 2026 | Oct 2026 | weekly | weekly |
| Fertiliser and food | 2026 | Apr 2026 | per event | not found |
| Rare earth controls | 2025 | Nov 2025 | per event | 10 Nov 2026 |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Seaborne volume | GOOD | port and inland legs |
| Canals and straits | PARTIAL | transits after Q2 2026 |
| Energy flows | GOOD | Hormuz data reliability |
| Fertiliser and food | PARTIAL | importer stocks |
| Minerals | THIN | processing outside the top refiner |
| Container freight | PARTIAL | long-run series |
| Trade policy | PARTIAL | effective tariffs on one basis |
| Air, rail and road | THIN | not covered |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Port-level and inland-leg throughput on a common basis | port authorities, customs and national statistics offices | not published on a common basis; port data not retrieved |
| Strait of Hormuz transits and flows after the second quarter of 2026 | EIA, UNCTAD and vessel-tracking providers465 | tracking data unreliable since late February 2026; only the Drewry note of two transits in the week to 29 October was found |
| Effective tariff rates on one basis across major economies | national tariff schedules and WTO tariff data | the Yale Budget Lab tracker could not be retrieved; no figure is used |
| Share of trade that passes through two or more chokepoints | customs and route data | no consolidated series found |
| Inventory buffers held by firms and states | firms, national statistics and strategic stock agencies | not published on a common basis |
| Taiwan share of leading-edge chip manufacturing | SIA and BCG supply chain study28 | report not opened; search summaries give 92 percent of sub-10 nm capacity and 69 percent of 2022 production, and the two are not reconciled |
| IEA critical minerals outlook figures from the report itself | IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 202626 | the report page returned an access error; figures come from a press article |
| USGS rare earth production by country | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 202627 | the publication returned an access error |
| IMF PortWatch chokepoint series | IMF PortWatch44 | the dashboard page returned no readable content |
| IMF Suez Canal revenue projection from the review itself | IMF fourth review18 | only a news report on the review was opened |
| Status of the rare earth control suspension after 10 November 2026 | Ministry of Commerce notices | the date falls after evidence close; no extension notice found |
| Capability rungs beyond rerouting and canal recovery | carriers, ports, regulators, ministries | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the UN Trade and Development body. Annual. Role: binds TRD-001 and INF-002. Coverage: global seaborne trade, 2024 with projections to 2030. The chapter text was read in full.
EVD-SR03-001
UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I1
Issued by the World Trade Organization. Twice a year. Role: binds FIN-008. Coverage: global merchandise trade, 2025 growth and the 2026 baseline and high-energy-price case. The news release was read; the full report was not.
EVD-SR03-002
WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 202613
| Dimension | EVD-SR03-001 | EVD-SR03-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | volume, ton-miles, containers, commodities | merchandise and services, regions and sectors |
| Timeliness | about 9 months after the year | about 1 week after the data cut |
| Revision | annual; prior years restated | forecasts revised in March, October and in between |
| Method transparency | sources named; data from commercial shipping databases | forecast method described by the issuer |
| External validation | compiled from industry and port data | review by the issuer’s statistics staff |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AIS | automatic identification system for vessels |
| EIA | US Energy Information Administration |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IMO | International Maritime Organization |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| MFN | most-favoured-nation |
| SCFI | Shanghai Containerized Freight Index |
| TEU | twenty-foot equivalent unit |
| UNCTAD | United Nations Trade and Development |
| WCI | World Container Index |
| WTO | World Trade Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SR03-CHK-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | regional supply chain cards | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: chokepoint transit
- Construct
- a recorded passage of a vessel through a named strait or canal
- Unit
- vessels per day or per week
- Method
- vessel-tracking and canal-authority counts
- Source
- UNCTAD rapid assessment5; Drewry16
- Uncertainty
- counts differ by provider and by what is counted
- Known limits
- does not record cargo, flag or destination
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 46EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group, Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era, 2021, taken from search-result summaries that disagree on the Taiwan share; no figure is used in findings. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026), taken only from the press article cited as reference 23; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths chapter; the publication returned an access error and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch, chokepoint transit and trade monitoring platform; the dashboard page returned no readable content and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt’s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back