Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

The first annual edition of the supply chains and chokepoints report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of the world’s supply chains, trade routes and chokepoints, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition will be read.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Desk
GCRI Systems Evidence
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsSR-03

Strategic Systems

Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources46numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators15in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Status

Status and boundaries.

This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the global evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-STR-SR-03-2026-BL
Identifier status
Series alias and evidence cut are provisional until the owner confirms them. No UNI is minted.
Family · class
Strategic Systems Report SR-03 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Lifecycle state
Strategic Systems Report SR-03 · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
Publication date
October 2026
Evidence close
30 September 2026 · cut DC-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Access class
PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
Pre-release check
Re-check the Chinese export-control suspension (ends 10 Nov 2026) before release.
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Designed for
strategic planning · supply-chain risk screening · portfolio discussion · research · multilateral dialogue · public communication
Not for
government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
Registry
record NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
Corrections
registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
AI use
disclosed in Annex C
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0 · 2027 annual
Licence
text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
Desk identifier
Collection

02 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. Yes: conflict, attacks on vessels, water levels and trade controls recur across routes.

    Do supply chain disruptions have common causes?Reported

  2. Through shared dependence on a few straits, canals and processors.

    How do disruptions spread?Reported

  3. Ton-miles rose 5.9 percent in 2024 against 2.2 percent for volume.

    How large is the rerouting effect?Reported

  4. About one fifth of oil and LNG and about one third of seaborne fertiliser pass through Hormuz.

    How exposed are energy and fertiliser flows?Reported

  5. Merchandise volume grew 4.6 percent in 2025 and the WTO March 2026 baseline for 2026 is 1.9 percent.

    Has trade held up?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

03 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Trade moves through a few narrow places

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the supply chains and chokepoints baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four global risk objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Strait of Hormuz daily transits, 2026
  2. 1.1How did the WTO see 2026 trade in March? Merchandise volume growth, percent
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Strait of Hormuz daily transits, 2026
List of tables (45)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  3. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  4. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  5. 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
  6. 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
  7. 6.32027 supply chains and chokepoints readiness pack
  8. 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
  9. 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
  10. 6.6Institutional flagships
  11. 6.7Statistics, flows and freight
  12. 6.8Treaties, standards and regulations
  13. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  14. 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the supply chains and chokepoints candidate mission
  15. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  16. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  17. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  18. 7.6Signals at baseline
  19. 8.1Evidence at baseline
  20. 8.2Evidence at baseline
  21. 8.3Evidence at baseline
  22. 8.4Evidence at baseline
  23. 8.5Evidence at baseline
  24. A.1Methods
  25. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  26. A.3Status grammar
  27. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  28. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  29. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  30. A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
  31. A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
  32. A.9Publication acceptance record
  33. A.10The status every value carries
  34. A.11Series terms
  35. A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
  36. A.13Technical annex
  37. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  38. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  39. B.3Global source register
  40. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  41. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  42. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  43. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  44. B.8This edition in every format
  45. C.1Release path for this version

04 · GCRI reading

How GCRI reads this edition.

The evidence supports reading trade as a network with narrow places. Common causes recur across routes, disruptions spread through shared straits, canals and processors, and recovery is limited by thresholds such as transit capacity and stocks. Evidence is strongest for single routes and weakest for exposure that crosses several.

INF-003 · CON-007 · MIN-010 · SYS-012

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

05 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none: first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the supply chains and chokepoints modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of supply chains and chokepoints releases, statistics and the peer-reviewed literature to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

06 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV15 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
PDF, A4 and US LetterPrinted from the edition pack in the Reports print design, with the publication ID, the evidence cut and the pack hash in its metadata; signed with its DOI at release At releaseNot yet issued
Data packageEvery table of the edition as CSV and JSON, with the citation files (CSL-JSON, BibTeX, RIS), built with the site With the editionAnnex B, data

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

07 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-03/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-03/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-03/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-03/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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