Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the climate technology baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes. 2025 was 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial and the three-year average passed 1.5.¹²

   Is the climate warming still?Reported

2. About 170 GtCO2 for a 50% chance of 1.5 degrees C, at the start of the 2025 edition period.³

   How much budget is left?Reported

3. Solar generation grew 30% in 2025 and fossil generation fell slightly.⁵

   Is clean power scaling?Reported

4. About 68 Mtpa of operating capacity across 113 projects in July 2026; capacity is not capture.⁶

   How big is capture today?Reported

5. About 2.2 GtCO2 per year, almost all land based; novel removal is about 2 MtCO2.¹

   How much carbon is removed?Reported

6. No. The gap is 1.2 GtCO2 per year in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.¹

   Do pledges match the pathways?Reported

7. Carbon pricing covers about 29% of emissions; durable removal markets are small and young.¹³²¹

   Are the markets in place?Reported

8. Planned against delivered durable storage while emissions stay high. SCN-XT17-STO-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of carbon removal in 2030, against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios; the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.

Removal is expected to carry more of the load as emissions stay high, yet current removal is almost all conventional and land based, and novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year¹. Companies announce more than 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050, but the report rates the credibility of those announcements as low¹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is climate technology risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry climate technology shocks into other systems?
• Which climate technology capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The climate technology-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their climate technology content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   FIN → INF

   Carbon prices and offtake fund capture and storage build-out.

   Reported pricing revenue and removal market¹³²⁰

2. 02

   ENE → INF

   Power and heat availability set where capture plants can run.

   Inferred power generation trends⁵

3. 03

   INF → CLI

   Capture and storage remove a small share of emissions at present.

   Reported capture capacity and removal inventory⁶¹

4. 04

   DAT → FIN

   Registry and measurement rules decide what is paid for.

   Inferred removal data basis¹²¹

5. 05

   GOV → TRD

   Border pricing links imports to embedded emissions.

   Reported EU carbon border mechanism¹⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of carbon removal in 2030, against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios; the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.

Implication

Removal is expected to carry more of the load as emissions stay high, yet current removal is almost all conventional and land based, and novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year¹. Companies announce more than 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050, but the report rates the credibility of those announcements as low¹.

What would move it

New national pledges, the next report edition, delivered novel capacity and registry reconciliation would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Copernicus puts 2025 at 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial, the third warmest year on record, and the 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C for the first time.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The Global Carbon Project projects fossil CO2 emissions up 1.1% in 2025 and total CO2 emissions of 42.2 billion tonnes; the remaining 1.5 degrees C budget is 170 GtCO2, about four years.³²

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   Total carbon removal is 2.2 GtCO2 per year, 99.9% conventional and mostly land based; novel removal is about 2 MtCO2 per year, growing about 40% per year, with about 20% of planned capacity built.¹

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   Country pledges reach 2.5 GtCO2 per year of removal in 2030 against a median of 2.9 in the highest-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios, and the gap grows to 1.2 in 2035 and 5.2 in 2050.¹

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Solar generation rose 636 TWh (30%) to 2,778 TWh in 2025, and fossil generation fell by 38 TWh, the first year since 2020 without a rise.⁵⁴

2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   A search summary of IRENA statistics reports 692 GW of renewable capacity added in 2025 and 5,149 GW in total; the primary release was not opened.²⁶

2.4Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

   The Global CCS Institute counts 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa of capture capacity at 31 July 2026, and states that capacity is not actual annual capture.⁶⁷

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006

   Brevik cement capture began operation in June 2025 with a design capture of about 400,000 tonnes per year, around half of the plant emissions; Northern Lights phase 1 storage of 1.5 Mtpa is operational.⁸⁹¹⁰

3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-009

   A company announcement states that the STRATOS direct air capture plant is designed for up to 500,000 tonnes per year, and the US EPA issued the first Class VI permits for a direct air capture project in April 2025; later start-up timing is from a trade report.¹¹¹⁹²⁹

2.5Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   Direct carbon pricing covers about 29% of global emissions, raised more than USD 107 billion in 2025 and spans 87 instruments, at an average price near USD 21 per tonne.¹³

2.6Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

   The EU carbon border mechanism entered its definitive period on 1 January 2026 for cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen.¹⁷

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading pathway for 2027 testing is a gap between planned and delivered durable storage while emissions stay high and removal is expected to carry more of the load. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through climate technology, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries climate technology risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on climate technology, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT17-CLI-001

   Removal shortfall against pledges and pathways

   Driver

   emissions still rising and pledges below scenario levels¹³

   Exposure

   net-zero plans that rely on removal

   Vulnerability

   novel capacity built is about 20% of plans¹

   Capacity

   new pledges, storage permits and offtake²⁰¹⁹

   Cascade

   CLI → FIN, GOV

   Horizon

   5 to 10 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT17-INF-002

   Storage and transport chokepoints

   Driver

   growth in capture projects against few storage sites⁶¹⁰

   Exposure

   projects that depend on one shared store

   Vulnerability

   permitting time and single-site dependence¹⁹

   Capacity

   phase 2 storage expansion under construction⁸

   Cascade

   INF → FIN, CLI

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT17-DAT-003

   Measurement and credit quality gaps

   Driver

   registry bases differ and capacity is not capture⁶²¹

   Exposure

   buyers and regulators relying on credits

   Vulnerability

   uneven quantification rules

   Capacity

   core carbon principles and the EU removal framework¹⁵²²

   Cascade

   DAT → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT17-GOV-004

   Rule and price fragmentation

   Driver

   different carbon prices, disclosure rules and border measures¹³¹⁷¹⁸

   Exposure

   trade in cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers and hydrogen

   Vulnerability

   uneven coverage of emissions by pricing

   Capacity

   disclosure and target-setting standards¹⁸²⁴

   Cascade

   GOV → TRD, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for climate technology at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

announced capture and removal projects grow faster than permitted and injecting storage while emissions stay high

Analogues

about 20% of planned novel removal capacity built¹; a direct air capture start-up that slipped past its first target date¹¹²⁹

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   FIN → INF

   offtake and pricing support a wave of announced projects

   2025

2. 2

   INF → CLI

   delivered removal stays small against pledges

   2025

3. 3

   DAT → FIN

   buyers and regulators question what counts as removal

   2025

4. 4

   GOV → TRD

   border and credit rules diverge across jurisdictions

   2026

5. 5

   ENE → INF

   power and heat for plants compete with other demand

   2025

6. 6

   CLI → GOV

   pledges are revised as the budget shrinks

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01 would travel through Climate Technologies and Carbon Management’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management 2026, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01 (2026); Climate Technologies and Carbon Management 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for climate technology. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 climate technology readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers climate technology assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about climate technologies and carbon management as infrastructure and its couplings?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed journals and assessments; agencies and standards bodies; frameworks; operator pages and market dashboards

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (eds.), GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (page; 2004 edition, revised 2015 with the Scope 2 Guidance). GHG Protocol, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14068-1:2023 Climate change management, transition to net zero, carbon neutrality, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse gases, specification for quantification, monitoring and reporting of project emission reductions or removal enhancements, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), The Section 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, cited from memory without credit values; the page returned an access error. US Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures; the page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, special report, 2018, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fuss, S. et al., Negative emissions, Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects, Environmental Research Letters 13, 063002, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 16NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (page; Mauna Loa monthly mean 426.07 ppm for September 2026 and 424.37 ppm for September 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, cited without figures; the page returned a not-found error. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, adopted 12 December 2015, cited from memory; the page returned empty content. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. C-01

   How much durable storage is planned, permitted and actually injecting, by country?

   INI-XT17-STO-01 · planned and delivered storage; first output: storage register.

2. C-02

   What do capture and direct air capture plants need in power and water per tonne?

   INI-XT17-ENE-02 · energy and water footprint; first output: footprint estimates by plant type.

3. C-03

   Which sorbents, minerals, biomass and fabrication steps are single points of failure?

   INI-XT17-MAT-03 · materials and biomass; first output: dependence map.

4. C-04

   How can delivered removal be counted on one registry basis, with uncertainty?

   INI-XT17-MRV-04 · removal on a common basis; first output: reconciliation table.

5. C-05

   How does actual annual capture compare with design capacity?

   INI-XT17-CAP-05 · capture against capacity; first output: operator reporting overlay.

6. C-06

   Which national and regional rules set quality criteria for removal credits?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.

7. C-07

   What workforce exists for capture, storage and removal projects?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. C-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real projects, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 climate technology portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The climate technology edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, climate and minerals, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   climate technology and carbon management readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · GS-07 climate · SR-04 minerals

   GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   capture, storage, removal, power, markets, governance

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-17 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate technology candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT17-2027-01 · Storage delivery Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Capture, transport and storage infrastructure

Capture plants, ships, pipelines and storage wells are built infrastructure. Counts are strongest for design capacity and weakest for actual capture and injected volumes.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.2Energy, power and water for capture and removal

Capture and removal need heat, power and water. Clean power is scaling, while the footprint per tonne of capture plants is not published on a common basis.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.3Materials, biomass and storage geology

Capture and removal depend on solvents and sorbents, steel, biomass and suitable geology. These dependencies are the least documented part of the evidence here.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.4Economy, markets and workforce

Carbon pricing raised large public revenues in 2025, while durable removal markets are small and young. Workforce numbers are not bound.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.5Security, disclosure and governance watch

Rules decide what is paid for and what counts. Border pricing is in its definitive period, disclosure and target standards are being revised, and credit quality rules are voluntary.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025 (forecast of about 4,600 GW of new renewable capacity to 2030, near 80% solar), taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Climate technology System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT17-CLIMATETECH · v0.1

Purpose

represent climate technologies and carbon management as infrastructure coupled to energy, water, land and biomass, minerals, finance, workforce and governance

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 climate technology annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• State of CDR¹: chapter data on current levels and costs
• Global CCS Institute⁶: project list and counting rules
• EU Commission²²: removal framework criteria
• IRENA²⁶: primary capacity statistics

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: capture capacity

Construct

maximum design rate at which a commercial facility can capture CO2 per year

Unit

million tonnes of CO2 per year (Mtpa)

Method

sum over operating commercial facilities in the institute database

Source

Global CCS Institute status page⁶

Uncertainty

not stated on the page

Known limits

capacity is not actual annual capture; the project count rose from 77 in the 2025 edition to 113 in the 2026 edition on a basis not checked here

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), CCUS Projects Database, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• ENE
• DAT
• TRD
• MIN
• WAT
• BIO
• FOO

B.3Regional reading, climate technology across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of climate technology infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Cluster card: shared CO2 transport and storage in the North Sea

• storage
• transport
• cement capture
• shared infrastructure

Systems in view

cement capture, ship transport, receiving terminal, subsea storage

Defining events

Brevik capture began in June 2025⁸; phase 1 storage operational¹⁰

Couplings

INF → CLI storage; FIN → INF funding and premium sales

Capability evidence

phase 2 expansion to 5 Mtpa reported as under construction⁸

Gaps

actual injected volumes; further customers; permit status

Agenda items

C-01 · C-05

B.5How countries appear in the climate technology edition

Countries enter the climate technology edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (page; Mauna Loa monthly mean 426.07 ppm for September 2026 and 424.37 ppm for September 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
3. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
4. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
5. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
13. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
15. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (page; Mauna Loa monthly mean 426.07 ppm for September 2026 and 424.37 ppm for September 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
23. 23World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (eds.), GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (page; 2004 edition, revised 2015 with the Scope 2 Guidance). GHG Protocol, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025 (forecast of about 4,600 GW of new renewable capacity to 2030, near 80% solar), taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), CCUS Projects Database, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures; the page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climeworks (ed.), Mammoth direct air capture plant pages, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Climeworks, Zurich. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14068-1:2023 Climate change management, transition to net zero, carbon neutrality, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), The Section 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, cited from memory without credit values; the page returned an access error. US Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, cited without figures; the page returned a not-found error. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, special report, 2018, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fuss, S. et al., Negative emissions, Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects, Environmental Research Letters 13, 063002, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse gases, specification for quantification, monitoring and reporting of project emission reductions or removal enhancements, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, adopted 12 December 2015, cited from memory; the page returned empty content. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version