Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 44 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.144 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965 to 1039, 2025 (abstract page: fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 235 GtCO2 remaining for 1.5 degrees C from the start of 2025). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 release (news page dated 13 November 2025; fossil CO2 up 1.1% in 2025; total emissions 42.2 GtCO2; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget 170 GtCO2; CO2 425.7 ppm). Global Carbon Project, Tsukuba. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  4. 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025 (2024 data: solar 6.9% and wind 8.1% of electricity; low-carbon share 40.9%; solar generation up 29%; fossil generation up 1.4%). Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026 (2025 data: solar generation 2,778 TWh, up 636 TWh or 30%; fossil generation down 38 TWh; renewables 33.8% of generation). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  7. 7Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2025 media release (9 October 2025; 77 operational facilities, up 54% from 50; 47 projects under construction with 44 Mtpa; 513 Mtpa operating and in development). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Global CCS Institute (ed.), Brevik CCS Facility Profile (2026; operation began June 2025; capture capacity 400,000 tonnes per year; Northern Lights phase 1 1.5 Mtpa operational, phase 2 5 Mtpa under construction; capital cost and abatement cost are secondary figures cited in the profile and are not used). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Heidelberg Materials (ed.), World premiere at Heidelberg Materials: opening of CCS facility in Norway (company release, 18 June 2025; about 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, 50% of plant emissions). Company statement, weak evidence. Heidelberg Materials, Heidelberg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Northern Lights JV (ed.), About the Longship project (operator page; phase 1 storage up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year; owners Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies). Operator statement, weak evidence. Northern Lights JV, Stavanger. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF (eds.), 2025 was the third-warmest year on record (news item, 14 January 2026; 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), Direct carbon pricing covers nearly one third of global emissions (press release on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, 19 May 2026; about 29% coverage; revenue above USD 107 billion in 2025; 87 instruments; average price near USD 21 per tonne). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  15. 15Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ed.), Core Carbon Principles (page; ten principles in three groups; no credit categories listed on the page). ICVCM, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (page; Mauna Loa monthly mean 426.07 ppm for September 2026 and 424.37 ppm for September 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  17. 17European Commission (ed.), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (page; transitional phase 2023 to 2025; definitive period from 1 January 2026; six sectors). Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (navigator page; issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20Frontier Climate (ed.), Frontier home page (advance market commitment of USD 1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040; buyer group page, weak evidence for market size). Frontier Climate, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (eds.), GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (page; 2004 edition, revised 2015 with the Scope 2 Guidance). GHG Protocol, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24Science Based Targets initiative (ed.), Corporate Net-Zero Standard (page; versions 1.3.1 and 2.0; target validation under version 2.0 from the first quarter of 2027; all new submissions aligned to version 2.0 from 1 February 2028). SBTi, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25Equinor (ed.), Sleipner (operator page; CO2 removal from produced gas since 1996; more than 19 million tonnes stored by the end of 2020; Utsira formation). Operator statement. Equinor, Stavanger. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025 (forecast of about 4,600 GW of new renewable capacity to 2030, near 80% solar), taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), CCUS Projects Database, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory without figures; the page returned an access error. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climeworks (ed.), Mammoth direct air capture plant pages, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Climeworks, Zurich. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14068-1:2023 Climate change management, transition to net zero, carbon neutrality, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Research Service (ed.), The Section 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, cited from memory without credit values; the page returned an access error. US Congress, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, cited without figures; the page returned a not-found error. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, special report, 2018, cited from memory without figures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fuss, S. et al., Negative emissions, Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects, Environmental Research Letters 13, 063002, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO (ed.), ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse gases, specification for quantification, monitoring and reporting of project emission reductions or removal enhancements, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Paris Agreement, adopted 12 December 2015, cited from memory; the page returned empty content. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-17
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 climate technology edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-17NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-17-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-17 edition Reports Climate Technologies and Carbon Management 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-17 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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