Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables14 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Total removal divided by novel removal, 2025	2,200 ÷ 2.0	about 1,100 times
(2)	Average operating capacity per project, July 2026	68 ÷ 113	≈ 0.6 Mtpa
(3)	Brevik design capture as a share of operating capacity	0.4 ÷ 68	≈ 0.6%
(4)	Years of remaining budget at 2025 emissions	170 ÷ 42.2	≈ 4.0 years

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Climate technology System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-XT17-CLIMATETECH · v0.1
Purpose: represent climate technologies and carbon management as infrastructure coupled to energy, water, land and biomass, minerals, finance, workforce and governance
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

2moderate

documented, buffered

18weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 climate technology annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Climate technology System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Temperature 2025	2025	Jan 2026	annual	next annual summary
Carbon budget	2025	Nov 2025	annual	next budget
Power generation	2025	2026 review	annual	next review
Capture status	2026	31 Jul 2026	annual	next status report
Removal inventory	2025	Jun 2026	periodic	next edition
Carbon pricing	2025	May 2026	annual	next report
Border mechanism	2026	page read 2026-11-03	continuous	first certificate year
Removal market	2026	page read 2026-11-03	continuous	monthly

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate state	GOOD	regional detail
Clean power	PARTIAL	primary capacity statistics
Capture and storage	PARTIAL	actual capture and storage capacity
Removal	PARTIAL	delivered removal on a common basis
Markets	PARTIAL	durable removal prices and retirements
Governance	PARTIAL	rule text and dates
Energy and water use	THIN	per-tonne footprints
Skills	THIN	workforce numbers

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Energy and water use per tonne for capture and direct air capture plants	operators, national laboratories, peer-reviewed footprint studies	not published on a common basis; none bound in this edition
Geological storage capacity and injection permits by country	national agencies and the institute project database³⁰¹⁹	the project database page returned an access error; the EPA page gives no counts
Actual annual capture against design capacity	operator reports and the institute⁶	the institute states that capacity is not capture; no actual-capture series was retrieved
Delivered durable removal on one registry basis	registries and the removal assessment¹²¹	the dashboard page shows no as-of date and counts all durable methods; bases differ from the report
STRATOS operating status and ramp	operator disclosures¹¹²⁹	company release says 2025 start; a trade report says second quarter of 2026; no operating figure retrieved
Primary figures for renewable capacity added in 2025	IRENA statistics²⁶	the agency page returned an access error; figures are from a search summary
Energy investment totals by technology	IEA World Energy Investment³¹	the agency page returned an access error; no figure used
Text of the EU 2040 amendment and its credit rules	Official Journal and Council release²⁸³⁸	Council page returned an access error; adoption details are from a search summary
Quality criteria and methodologies under the EU removal framework	Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 and delegated acts⁴⁰²²	the regulation text was not retrieved; the Commission page gives no criteria
Status of the US direct air capture hubs	DOE announcements¹⁴	the page lists funding announcements only and names no awardees
Cost per tonne by removal method on a common basis	the removal assessment chapters¹	ranges read in the report differ by method and scope; none bound here
Carbon credit retirements and prices for durable removal beyond one dashboard	registries and exchanges	not retrieved
Climate technology workforce size and skills gaps	national statistics, industry surveys	not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED
Capability rungs beyond monitoring, planning and finance	agencies, operators, laboratories	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Published in June 2026 by an international author group led from Oxford; open data. Periodic. Role: binds CLI-007 and CLI-008 and the removal tiles. Coverage: all removal methods, global.

EVD-XT17-001

The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition¹

Published by the Global CCS Institute with data as at 31 July 2026. Annual. Role: binds INF-005 and the capture tile. Coverage: commercial projects worldwide.

EVD-XT17-002

Global Status of CCS 2026 page⁶

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-XT17-001	EVD-XT17-002
Completeness	all removal methods; conventional uncertainty about 20%	commercial projects; capacity not capture
Timeliness	removal data to October 2025; report June 2026	data as at 31 July 2026
Revision	third edition; earlier values revised	edition counts differ from 2025
Method transparency	chapters and data portal published	project criteria on the institute pages
External validation	author group and reviewers listed	not stated on the page

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

State of CDR¹: chapter data on current levels and costs
Global CCS Institute⁶: project list and counting rules
EU Commission²²: removal framework criteria
IRENA²⁶: primary capacity statistics

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BECCS	bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
CBAM	carbon border adjustment mechanism
CCP	Core Carbon Principles
CCS	carbon capture and storage
CDR	carbon dioxide removal
DAC	direct air capture
DACCS	direct air capture with carbon storage
ERA5	fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
IFRS	International Financial Reporting Standards
Mtpa	million tonnes per year
GtCO2	billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
TWh	terawatt hours

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-XT17-STO-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Cluster notes	cards for the major capture, storage and removal clusters	2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: capture capacity

Construct: maximum design rate at which a commercial facility can capture CO2 per year
Unit: million tonnes of CO2 per year (Mtpa)
Method: sum over operating commercial facilities in the institute database
Source: Global CCS Institute status page⁶
Uncertainty: not stated on the page
Known limits: capacity is not actual annual capture; the project count rose from 77 in the 2025 edition to 113 in the 2026 edition on a basis not checked here

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), CCUS Projects Database, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19US Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Class VI wells used for geologic sequestration of CO2 (page updated 18 August 2026; no permit counts on the page). US EPA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Global CCS Institute (ed.), Global Status of CCS 2026 (status page: 113 commercial CCS projects in operation and 68 Mtpa operating capture capacity as at 31 July 2026; capacity is not the same as actual annual capture). Global CCS Institute, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21CDR.fyi (ed.), CDR.fyi public dashboard (headline metrics: 50.6 million tonnes contracted, 1.7 million tonnes delivered, weighted average price USD 340 per tonne; no as-of date on the page; dashboard, weak evidence). CDR.fyi, online. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total; solar about 511 GW), taken from search-result summaries; the agency page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending the European Climate Law for a 2040 target of a 90% net reduction with up to 5% international credits from 2036, taken from search-result summaries that did not confirm adoption dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), press release on the provisional agreement on the 2040 climate target of 10 December 2025, cited without figures; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/3012 establishing a Union framework for permanent carbon removals, carbon farming and carbon storage in products, cited from memory; the text page returned empty content. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22European Commission (ed.), Carbon removals and carbon farming (policy page; framework names methodologies and schemes; no criteria or dates on the page). Directorate-General for Climate Action, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14US Department of Energy Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (ed.), Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs (programme page; four hubs with potential of at least 1 million tonnes per year each; USD 3.5 billion announcement of December 2022 and USD 1.8 billion announcement of December 2024; no awardees named on the page). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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