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Planned storage outruns delivered storage

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate technology is infrastructure with a measurement problem
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Planned storage outruns delivered storage
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
announced capture and removal projects grow faster than permitted and injecting storage while emissions stay high
Analogues
about 20% of planned novel removal capacity built1; a direct air capture start-up that slipped past its first target date1129
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    FIN → INF

    offtake and pricing support a wave of announced projects

    2025

  2. 2

    INF → CLI

    delivered removal stays small against pledges

    2025

  3. 3

    DAT → FIN

    buyers and regulators question what counts as removal

    2025

  4. 4

    GOV → TRD

    border and credit rules diverge across jurisdictions

    2026

  5. 5

    ENE → INF

    power and heat for plants compete with other demand

    2025

  6. 6

    CLI → GOV

    pledges are revised as the budget shrinks

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01 would travel through Climate Technologies and Carbon Management’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Finance to infrastructureOfftake and pricing support a wave of announced projects. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to climateDelivered removal stays small against pledges. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 2
03 DAT to financeBuyers and regulators question what counts as removal. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 3
04 Governance to tradeBorder and credit rules diverge across jurisdictions. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 4
05 Energy to infrastructurePower and heat for plants compete with other demand. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 5
06 Climate to governancePledges are revised as the budget shrinks. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-17, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management 2026, scenario SCN-XT17-STO-01 (2026); Climate Technologies and Carbon Management 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Smith, S.M. et al. (eds.), The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, third edition (report and data portal, 2 June 2026; total removal 2.2 GtCO2 per year; novel removal about 2 MtCO2 per year; pledge gaps of 0.3, 1.2 and 5.2 GtCO2 per year in 2030, 2035 and 2050). Opened as the downloaded PDF. University of Oxford and partners, Oxford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11Occidental and 1PointFive (eds.), Occidental and 1PointFive secure Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct air capture facility (company release, 7 April 2025; capacity up to 500,000 tonnes per year; stated on track to begin operations in 2025). Company statement, weak evidence. 1PointFive, Houston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Oil and Gas Journal (ed.), report that Occidental and 1PointFive expect the STRATOS direct air capture plant online in the second quarter of 2026, taken from a search-result summary without a visible date. Trade press, weak evidence. PennWell, Tulsa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Planned storage outruns delivered storage. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Climate Technologies and Carbon Management (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-CLIMATETECH-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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