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European Union 2026

Union européenne

The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut.

Read the editionExposition aux aléas
Constats
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
49
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

European Union in six readings.

Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 452.0millionpopulation, 1 January 2026 [13]
  • 22.0%aged 65 or over, 2025 [14]
  • 40%net domestic emissions below 1990, 2024 [1]
  • 57%energy import dependency, 2024 [8]
  • 25.2%renewables in final energy, 2024 [7]
  • 27member statesin the Union at evidence close [13]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATEau1 finding

    28% EU land under water scarcity in at least one season, 2023. Déclaré

    Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023; abstraction fell 14% since 2000.

  2. ENEÉnergie2 findings

    25.2% Renewables in gross final energy consumption, 2024. Déclaré

    Renewables 25.2% of final energy; 57% of energy imported.

  3. INFinfrastructuresnot assessed

    Duties on critical entities and network security are in law; asset condition is not assessed here.

  4. FOOAlimentation1 finding

    33.2% Farm managers aged 65 or over, 2020. Déclaré

    9.1 million farms in 2020; a third of managers 65 or over.

  5. HLTSanté1 finding

    62,775 deaths Modélisé heat-related deaths, 32 European countries, summer, 2024. Déclaré

    Modelled heat deaths of 62,775 in summer 2024; local dengue and chikungunya now recorded.

  6. BIOBiodiversité1 finding

    26.1% EU land in protected areas, 2022. Déclaré

    Protected land 26.1% and sea 12.3% in 2022; record burnt area in 2025.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-EU-CLI-001

    Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season

    DéclaréEQL 4

    Facteur
    longer, hotter summers
    Exposition
    southern and central member states; forests and protected sites
    Vulnérabilité
    older population; scarcity on 28% of land [19]
    Capacité
    civil protection mechanism and rescEU [41]
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Atmosphère et météoSystèmes d'eauTerres et écosystèmes

  • RSK-EU-ENE-002

    Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out

    InferredEQL 3

    Facteur
    loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike
    Exposition
    power, industry, heating
    Vulnérabilité
    imports cover 57% of energy [8]
    Capacité
    storage rules and stockpiling strategy [12] [40]
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-EU-FIN-003

    Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets

    DéclaréEQL 3

    Facteur
    floods, storms, heat and fire
    Exposition
    households and public infrastructure
    Vulnérabilité
    less than 20% of losses insured [23]
    Capacité
    national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal [26]
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    Horizon
    annuel

    Systèmes d'eauAtmosphère et météoTerres et écosystèmes

  • RSK-EU-HLT-004

    Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems

    DéclaréEQL 3

    Facteur
    longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes
    Exposition
    older adults; southern regions
    Vulnérabilité
    22.0% of the population aged 65 or over [14]
    Capacité
    ECDC surveillance in operation [33] [34]
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Atmosphère et météo

Scenario · SCN-EU-CLI-01

Compound summer of heat, drought and fire

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → HLTprolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people
  2. 2CLI → BIOfeux de forêt burns forest and protected sites
  3. 3CLI → WATscarcity spreads across basins
  4. 4WAT → ENEheat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand
  5. 5ENE → HLTtight supply while cooling is most needed
  6. 6HLT → FINuninsured losses fall on public budgets

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
DeWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModéréeStrong
ENEModérée·StrongStrongModérée
FOOModéréeWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModérée·Weak
BIOStrongModéréeStrongModérée·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → HLTheat raises deaths, mainly among older peopleDéclaré
  2. CLI → BIOheat and drought feed feux de forêt that burns protected sitesDéclaré
  3. CLI → HLTwarmer seasons let mosquito-borne disease spread locallyDéclaré
  4. CLI → WAT → FOOdrought and heat cut water for crops and riversInferred
  5. TRD → ENE → FOOgas and fertiliser supply shocks pass into food costsInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of European Union.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of European Union
IDÉditionSector or systemStatutStatement
CLI-001Union européenneCLI Climate forcing DéclaréNet domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%.
CLI-002Union européenneCLI Climate forcing DéclaréA 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target.
ENE-003Union européenneENE Énergie DéclaréRenewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030.
ENE-004Union européenneENE Énergie DéclaréNet imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports.
TRD-005Union européenneTRD Commerce DéclaréThe Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026.
CLI-006Union européenneCLI Climate forcing Déclaré2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025.
HLT-007Union européenneHLT Santé DéclaréA peer-reviewed study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.
WAT-008Union européenneWAT Eau DéclaréPénurie d'eau conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023.
BIO-009Union européenneBIO Biodiversité DéclaréThe EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites.
FIN-010Union européenneFIN Finance DéclaréWeather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured.
FOO-011Union européenneFOO Alimentation DéclaréThe EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over.
SYS-012Union européenneSYS Systémique Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for European Union.

The desks’ editions for European Union
BureauÉditionÉtatIdentifiant
GCRI Systems EvidenceEuropean Union 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: European Union 2026En préparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: European Union 2026En préparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: European Union 2026En préparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Journal des corrections

Versions and corrections
VersionDateÉtatVariationNotice
NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,aucun
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
ÉcartShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/eu/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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