Reports · GCRI · Country profile
European Union 2026
Unione europea
The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut.
- Risultanze
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Fonti
- 49
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
European Union in six readings.
Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATAcqua1 finding
28% EU land under water scarcity in at least one season, 2023. □Dichiarato
Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023; abstraction fell 14% since 2000.
- ENEEnergia2 findings
25.2% Renewables in gross final energy consumption, 2024. □Dichiarato
Renewables 25.2% of final energy; 57% of energy imported.
- INFinfrastrutturenot assessed
Duties on critical entities and network security are in law; asset condition is not assessed here.
- FOOCibo1 finding
33.2% Farm managers aged 65 or over, 2020. □Dichiarato
9.1 million farms in 2020; a third of managers 65 or over.
- HLTSalute1 finding
62,775 deaths Modellato heat-related deaths, 32 European countries, summer, 2024. □Dichiarato
Modelled heat deaths of 62,775 in summer 2024; local dengue and chikungunya now recorded.
- BIOBiodiversità1 finding
26.1% EU land in protected areas, 2022. □Dichiarato
Protected land 26.1% and sea 12.3% in 2022; record burnt area in 2025.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-EU-CLI-001
Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season
□DichiaratoEQL 4
- Fattore
- longer, hotter summers
- Esposizione
- southern and central member states; forests and protected sites
- Vulnerabilità
- older population; scarcity on 28% of land [19]
- Capacità
- civil protection mechanism and rescEU [41]
- Cascata
- CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE
- Orizzonte
- seasonal
Atmosfera e tempo meteorologicoSistemi idriciTerra ed ecosistemi
RSK-EU-ENE-002
Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out
▲InferredEQL 3
- Fattore
- loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike
- Esposizione
- power, industry, heating
- Vulnerabilità
- imports cover 57% of energy [8]
- Cascata
- TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
- Orizzonte
- 1 to 3 years
No domain reading
RSK-EU-FIN-003
Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets
□DichiaratoEQL 3
- Fattore
- floods, storms, heat and fire
- Esposizione
- households and public infrastructure
- Vulnerabilità
- less than 20% of losses insured [23]
- Capacità
- national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal [26]
- Cascata
- CLI → FIN → public budgets
- Orizzonte
- annuale
Sistemi idriciAtmosfera e tempo meteorologicoTerra ed ecosistemi
RSK-EU-HLT-004
Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems
□DichiaratoEQL 3
- Fattore
- longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes
- Esposizione
- older adults; southern regions
- Vulnerabilità
- 22.0% of the population aged 65 or over [14]
- Cascata
- CLI → HLT → ENE peak
- Orizzonte
- seasonal
Scenario · SCN-EU-CLI-01
Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → HLTprolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people
- 2CLI → BIOincendi boschivi burns forest and protected sites
- 3CLI → WATscarcity spreads across basins
- 4WAT → ENEheat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand
- 5ENE → HLTtight supply while cooling is most needed
- 6HLT → FINuninsured losses fall on public budgets
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core sistemi. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| Da | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Moderato | Strong |
| ENE | Moderato | · | Strong | Strong | Moderato |
| FOO | Moderato | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Moderato | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Moderato | Strong | Moderato | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → HLTheat raises deaths, mainly among older people□Dichiarato
- CLI → BIOheat and drought feed incendi boschivi that burns protected sites□Dichiarato
- CLI → HLTwarmer seasons let mosquito-borne disease spread locally□Dichiarato
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought and heat cut water for crops and rivers▲Inferred
- TRD → ENE → FOOgas and fertiliser supply shocks pass into food costs▲Inferred
05 · Findings
Every finding of European Union.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Edizione | Sector or system | Stato | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Unione europea | CLI Climate forcing | □ Dichiarato | Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%. |
| CLI-002 | Unione europea | CLI Climate forcing | □ Dichiarato | A 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target. |
| ENE-003 | Unione europea | ENE Energia | □ Dichiarato | Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030. |
| ENE-004 | Unione europea | ENE Energia | □ Dichiarato | Net imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports. |
| TRD-005 | Unione europea | TRD Commercio | □ Dichiarato | The Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026. |
| CLI-006 | Unione europea | CLI Climate forcing | □ Dichiarato | 2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025. |
| HLT-007 | Unione europea | HLT Salute | □ Dichiarato | A peer-reviewed study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024. |
| WAT-008 | Unione europea | WAT Acqua | □ Dichiarato | Scarsità idrica conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023. |
| BIO-009 | Unione europea | BIO Biodiversità | □ Dichiarato | The EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites. |
| FIN-010 | Unione europea | FIN Finanza | □ Dichiarato | Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured. |
| FOO-011 | Unione europea | FOO Cibo | □ Dichiarato | The EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over. |
| SYS-012 | Unione europea | SYS Sistemico | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for European Union.
| Ufficio | Edizione | Stato | Identificativo |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | European Union 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: European Union 2026 | In preparazione | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: European Union 2026 | In preparazione | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: European Union 2026 | In preparazione |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Chiusura delle evidenze30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Correzioniafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LeggiThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuisciSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ValutazioneJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| Versione | Date | Stato | Variazione | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | nessuno |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Divario | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/eu/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on European Union.
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