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European Union 2026

欧洲联盟

The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut.

Read the edition危害暴露
发现
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
5 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
来源
49
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

European Union in six readings.

Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 452.0millionpopulation, 1 January 2026 [13]
  • 22.0%aged 65 or over, 2025 [14]
  • 40%net domestic emissions below 1990, 2024 [1]
  • 57%energy import dependency, 2024 [8]
  • 25.2%renewables in final energy, 2024 [7]
  • 27member statesin the Union at evidence close [13]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WAT水1 finding

    28% EU land under water scarcity in at least one season, 2023. 报告值

    Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023; abstraction fell 14% since 2000.

  2. ENE能源2 findings

    25.2% Renewables in gross final energy consumption, 2024. 报告值

    Renewables 25.2% of final energy; 57% of energy imported.

  3. INF基础设施not assessed

    Duties on critical entities and network security are in law; asset condition is not assessed here.

  4. FOO食品1 finding

    33.2% Farm managers aged 65 or over, 2020. 报告值

    9.1 million farms in 2020; a third of managers 65 or over.

  5. HLT卫生1 finding

    62,775 deaths 模型生成 heat-related deaths, 32 European countries, summer, 2024. 报告值

    Modelled heat deaths of 62,775 in summer 2024; local dengue and chikungunya now recorded.

  6. BIO生物多样性1 finding

    26.1% EU land in protected areas, 2022. 报告值

    Protected land 26.1% and sea 12.3% in 2022; record burnt area in 2025.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 3, Finance 1, Systemic 1, Trade 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-EU-CLI-001

    Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season

    报告值EQL 4

    驱动因素
    longer, hotter summers
    风险暴露
    southern and central member states; forests and protected sites
    脆弱性
    older population; scarcity on 28% of land [19]
    能力
    civil protection mechanism and rescEU [41]
    级联
    CLI → WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE
    地平线
    seasonal

    大气与天气水系统土地与生态系统

  • RSK-EU-ENE-002

    Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out

    InferredEQL 3

    驱动因素
    loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike
    风险暴露
    power, industry, heating
    脆弱性
    imports cover 57% of energy [8]
    能力
    storage rules and stockpiling strategy [12] [40]
    级联
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    地平线
    1 to 3 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-EU-FIN-003

    Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets

    报告值EQL 3

    驱动因素
    floods, storms, heat and fire
    风险暴露
    households and public infrastructure
    脆弱性
    less than 20% of losses insured [23]
    能力
    national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal [26]
    级联
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    地平线
    年度

    水系统大气与天气土地与生态系统

  • RSK-EU-HLT-004

    Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems

    报告值EQL 3

    驱动因素
    longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes
    风险暴露
    older adults; southern regions
    脆弱性
    22.0% of the population aged 65 or over [14]
    能力
    ECDC surveillance in operation [33] [34]
    级联
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    地平线
    seasonal

    大气与天气

Scenario · SCN-EU-CLI-01

Compound summer of heat, drought and fire

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

2 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → HLTprolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people
  2. 2CLI → BIO野火 burns forest and protected sites
  3. 3CLI → WATscarcity spreads across basins
  4. 4WAT → ENEheat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand
  5. 5ENE → HLTtight supply while cooling is most needed
  6. 6HLT → FINuninsured losses fall on public budgets

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
从WATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrong中等Strong
ENE中等·StrongStrong中等
FOO中等Weak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeak中等·Weak
BIOStrong中等Strong中等·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → HLTheat raises deaths, mainly among older people报告值
  2. CLI → BIOheat and drought feed 野火 that burns protected sites报告值
  3. CLI → HLTwarmer seasons let mosquito-borne disease spread locally报告值
  4. CLI → WAT → FOOdrought and heat cut water for crops and riversInferred
  5. TRD → ENE → FOOgas and fertiliser supply shocks pass into food costsInferred

05 · Findings

Every finding of European Union.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of European Union
ID版本Sector or system状态Statement
CLI-001欧洲联盟CLI Climate forcing 报告值Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%.
CLI-002欧洲联盟CLI Climate forcing 报告值A 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target.
ENE-003欧洲联盟ENE 能源 报告值Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030.
ENE-004欧洲联盟ENE 能源 报告值Net imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports.
TRD-005欧洲联盟TRD 贸易 报告值The Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026.
CLI-006欧洲联盟CLI Climate forcing 报告值2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025.
HLT-007欧洲联盟HLT 卫生 报告值A peer-reviewed study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.
WAT-008欧洲联盟WAT 水 报告值缺水 conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023.
BIO-009欧洲联盟BIO 生物多样性 报告值The EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites.
FIN-010欧洲联盟FIN 金融 报告值Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured.
FOO-011欧洲联盟FOO 食品 报告值The EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over.
SYS-012欧洲联盟SYS 系统性 Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for European Union.

The desks’ editions for European Union
办事处版本状态标识符
GCRI Systems EvidenceEuropean Union 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: European Union 2026筹备中
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: European Union 2026筹备中
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: European Union 2026筹备中

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03证据截止30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07更正after release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

更正记录

Versions and corrections
版本日期状态变化通知
NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,无
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
差距Shown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/eu/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
报告贡献

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