Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

4 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Trade
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Water
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Food
    10. 2.10 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound summer of heat, drought and fire
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.

Figure 2.1EU weather and climate losses (EUR billion, 2024 prices)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Cumulative 1980 to 2024822
of which 2021 to 2024208

Source: EEA economic losses indicator23.

Implication

Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law2526.

What would move it

Insured-loss data for 2025 events, reforms of national schemes and any legislative proposal at EU level would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%.12

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    A 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target.24

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025.1516

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030.711

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Net imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports.8

2.4Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-TRD-005

    The Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026.910

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    A peer-reviewed study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in 32 European countries in summer 2024.17

2.6Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    Water scarcity conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023.19

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

    The EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites.22

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured.23

2.9Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011

    The EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over.3031

2.10Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 23European Environment Agency (ed.), “Economic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.back
  3. 26European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.back
  4. 1European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 4European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.back
  7. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.back
  9. 7Eurostat (ed.), “25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.back
  11. 8Eurostat (ed.), “Energy in Europe: imports dependency.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.back
  14. 17T. Janoš, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., “Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,” Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7back
  15. 19European Environment Agency (ed.), “Water scarcity conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).” Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 22Joint Research Centre (ed.), “2025 was the EU’s most destructive wildfire season on record.” News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  17. 30Eurostat (ed.), “EU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.” News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  18. 31Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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