Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Mexico 2026
Mexique
Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 2024. Its systèmes are tied to those of its northern neighbour.
- Constats
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Sources
- 47
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Mexico in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Mexico baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATEau2 findings
0.88 million acre-feet Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed, 2025. □Déclaré
Water stress on 64% of the area; 114 overexploited aquifers; shared rivers with the United States.
- ENEÉnergie2 findings
26% Clean share of electricity generation, 2025. □Déclaré
Dry gas supplies 64.2% of electricity; 5,010 PJ of refined products imported; clean share 26%.
- INFinfrastructuresnot assessed
Valley of Mexico subsidence up to 50 cm a year; 2017 séisme damage in several states.
- FOOAlimentation1 finding
Not bound USDA · blocker: report not retrievable Maize imports, latest marketing year, n/a. ·Not bound
Constitutional ban on planting modified maize; livestock trade disrupted by screwworm; import volumes not bound.
- HLTSanté1 finding
34.2% Population with no access to health services (deprivation), 2024. □Déclaré
Poverty at 29.6%; 34.2% without access to health services; heat season deaths recorded by state.
- BIOBiodiversité1 finding
94 of 232 Federal protected areas without a management programme, 2026. □Déclaré
232 federal protected areas, 98 million hectares protected; 94 areas without a management programme.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-MEX-WAT-001
Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall
□DéclaréEQL 4
RSK-MEX-ENE-002
Gas and fuel supply disruption
□DéclaréEQL 4
- Facteur
- cross-border supply shock or price spike
- Exposition
- power, transport, industry
- Vulnérabilité
- dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported [4]
- Capacité
- storage depth not bound; clean share 26% [5]
- Cascade
- TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-MEX-CLI-003
Tropical cyclones and river flooding
□DéclaréEQL 4
- Facteur
- rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms
- Exposition
- coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys
- Vulnérabilité
- housing and roads on slopes and floodplains
- Capacité
- parametric cover US$420 million [8]
- Cascade
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annuel
RSK-MEX-SEI-004
Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico
□DéclaréEQL 4
- Facteur
- intraslab or subduction séisme; ground sinking
- Exposition
- Mexico City and central states
- Vulnérabilité
- older buildings; soft lake-bed soils
- Capacité
- seismological service in routine use [9]; alert capability not bound
- Cascade
- SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- 30 years
Scenario · SCN-MEX-DRT-01
Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATdrought lowers storage and river flows
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises
- 3WAT → ENEhydropower falls and cooling water is constrained
- 4CLI → ENEheat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid
- 5WAT → TRDshared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation
- 6HLT → populationwater and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Mexico matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systèmes. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| De | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | Strong |
| ENE | Strong | · | Strong | Strong | Modérée |
| FOO | Strong | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Modérée | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Modérée | Strong | Modérée | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought cuts irrigation and rain-fed yield; 2.83 million hectares of crops were lost to drought in 2018–2023□Déclaré
- TRD → ENE → allimported gas and fuels carry price and supply shocks into power, transport and industry□Déclaré
- CLI → INFa category 5 landfall and heavy rain cut roads, power and homes□Déclaré
- SEI → INFan intraslab séisme damages buildings in several states□Déclaré
- WAT → TRDshortfalls in shared-river deliveries enter trade and tariff talks□Déclaré
05 · Findings
Every finding of Mexico.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Édition | Sector or system | Statut | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENE-001 | Mexique | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | In 2024 Mexico imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity generation. |
| ENE-002 | Mexique | ENE Énergie | □ Déclaré | Clean sources supplied 26% of Mexico’s electricity in 2025, with solar and wind at 13%; the NDC targets 38.5% clean generation in 2030. |
| CLI-003 | Mexique | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Mexico’s 2035 contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e unconditionally and 332–363 conditionally; the 2030 limit is 644 MtCO₂e gross. |
| WAT-004 | Mexique | WAT Eau | □ Déclaré | The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed; Mexico committed in February 2026 to annual deliveries of at least 0.35. |
| WAT-005 | Mexique | WAT Eau | □ Déclaré | Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, and 114 aquifers were overexploited in 2023. |
| SEI-006 | Mexique | SEI SEI | □ Déclaré | Parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year, and a magnitude 7.1 séisme on 19 September 2017 triggered emergency declarations in 112 municipalities of Puebla. |
| CLI-007 | Mexique | CLI Climate forcing | □ Déclaré | Ouragan Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023; heavy rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states. |
| FOO-008 | Mexique | FOO Alimentation | □ Déclaré | A constitutional amendment of March 2025 bars planting genetically modified maize, and the United States suspended Mexican live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025 over screwworm. |
| HLT-009 | Mexique | HLT Santé | □ Déclaré | In 2024, 14.4% of the population lacked access to nutritious food and 34.2% lacked access to health services. |
| BIO-010 | Mexique | BIO Biodiversité | □ Déclaré | Of 232 federal protected areas, 94 had no management programme in 2026, and spending was 16.2 pesos per protected hectare. |
| FIN-011 | Mexique | FIN Finance | □ Déclaré | The government holds US$420 million of World Bank parametric catastrophe bonds for séisme and Atlantic storms, maturing in April 2028. |
| SYS-012 | Mexique | SYS Systémique | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought that cuts irrigation and hydropower while heat lifts power demand on a gas-reliant grid. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Mexico.
| Bureau | Édition | État | Identifiant |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Mexico 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Mexico 2026 | En préparation | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Mexico 2026 | En préparation | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Mexico 2026 | En préparation |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Clôture des preuves30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Rectificatifsafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- LireThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- ContribuerSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- ExamenJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Journal des corrections
| Version | Date | État | Variation | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | aucun |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Écart | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/mex/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Mexico.
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