Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Mexico 2026
墨西哥
Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 2024. Its 系统 are tied to those of its northern neighbour.
- 发现
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 来源
- 47
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Mexico in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Mexico baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水2 findings
0.88 million acre-feet Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed, 2025. □报告值
Water stress on 64% of the area; 114 overexploited aquifers; shared rivers with the United States.
- ENE能源2 findings
26% Clean share of electricity generation, 2025. □报告值
Dry gas supplies 64.2% of electricity; 5,010 PJ of refined products imported; clean share 26%.
- INF基础设施not assessed
Valley of Mexico subsidence up to 50 cm a year; 2017 地震 damage in several states.
- FOO食品1 finding
Not bound USDA · blocker: report not retrievable Maize imports, latest marketing year, n/a. ·Not bound
Constitutional ban on planting modified maize; livestock trade disrupted by screwworm; import volumes not bound.
- HLT卫生1 finding
34.2% Population with no access to health services (deprivation), 2024. □报告值
Poverty at 29.6%; 34.2% without access to health services; heat season deaths recorded by state.
- BIO生物多样性1 finding
94 of 232 Federal protected areas without a management programme, 2026. □报告值
232 federal protected areas, 98 million hectares protected; 94 areas without a management programme.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-MEX-WAT-001
Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall
□报告值EQL 4
RSK-MEX-ENE-002
Gas and fuel supply disruption
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- cross-border supply shock or price spike
- 风险暴露
- power, transport, industry
- 脆弱性
- dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported [4]
- 能力
- storage depth not bound; clean share 26% [5]
- 级联
- TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-MEX-CLI-003
Tropical cyclones and river flooding
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms
- 风险暴露
- coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys
- 脆弱性
- housing and roads on slopes and floodplains
- 能力
- parametric cover US$420 million [8]
- 级联
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- 地平线
- 年度
RSK-MEX-SEI-004
Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- intraslab or subduction 地震; ground sinking
- 风险暴露
- Mexico City and central states
- 脆弱性
- older buildings; soft lake-bed soils
- 能力
- seismological service in routine use [9]; alert capability not bound
- 级联
- SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN
- 地平线
- 30 years
Scenario · SCN-MEX-DRT-01
Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATdrought lowers storage and river flows
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises
- 3WAT → ENEhydropower falls and cooling water is constrained
- 4CLI → ENEheat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid
- 5WAT → TRDshared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation
- 6HLT → populationwater and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Mexico matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 从 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | Strong |
| ENE | Strong | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 |
| FOO | Strong | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中等 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought cuts irrigation and rain-fed yield; 2.83 million hectares of crops were lost to drought in 2018–2023□报告值
- TRD → ENE → allimported gas and fuels carry price and supply shocks into power, transport and industry□报告值
- CLI → INFa category 5 landfall and heavy rain cut roads, power and homes□报告值
- SEI → INFan intraslab 地震 damages buildings in several states□报告值
- WAT → TRDshortfalls in shared-river deliveries enter trade and tariff talks□报告值
05 · Findings
Every finding of Mexico.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版本 | Sector or system | 状态 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENE-001 | 墨西哥 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | In 2024 Mexico imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity generation. |
| ENE-002 | 墨西哥 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Clean sources supplied 26% of Mexico’s electricity in 2025, with solar and wind at 13%; the NDC targets 38.5% clean generation in 2030. |
| CLI-003 | 墨西哥 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Mexico’s 2035 contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e unconditionally and 332–363 conditionally; the 2030 limit is 644 MtCO₂e gross. |
| WAT-004 | 墨西哥 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed; Mexico committed in February 2026 to annual deliveries of at least 0.35. |
| WAT-005 | 墨西哥 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, and 114 aquifers were overexploited in 2023. |
| SEI-006 | 墨西哥 | SEI SEI | □ 报告值 | Parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year, and a magnitude 7.1 地震 on 19 September 2017 triggered emergency declarations in 112 municipalities of Puebla. |
| CLI-007 | 墨西哥 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | 飓风 Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023; heavy rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states. |
| FOO-008 | 墨西哥 | FOO 食品 | □ 报告值 | A constitutional amendment of March 2025 bars planting genetically modified maize, and the United States suspended Mexican live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025 over screwworm. |
| HLT-009 | 墨西哥 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | In 2024, 14.4% of the population lacked access to nutritious food and 34.2% lacked access to health services. |
| BIO-010 | 墨西哥 | BIO 生物多样性 | □ 报告值 | Of 232 federal protected areas, 94 had no management programme in 2026, and spending was 16.2 pesos per protected hectare. |
| FIN-011 | 墨西哥 | FIN 金融 | □ 报告值 | The government holds US$420 million of World Bank parametric catastrophe bonds for 地震 and Atlantic storms, maturing in April 2028. |
| SYS-012 | 墨西哥 | SYS 系统性 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought that cuts irrigation and hydropower while heat lifts power demand on a gas-reliant grid. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Mexico.
| 办事处 | 版本 | 状态 | 标识符 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Mexico 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Mexico 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Mexico 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Mexico 2026 | 筹备中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03证据截止30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07更正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 阅读The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 贡献Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 审核Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
更正记录
| 版本 | 日期 | 状态 | 变化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 无 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 差距 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/mex/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Mexico.
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