Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Mexico 2026
Мексика
Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 2024. Its системы are tied to those of its northern neighbour.
- Выводы
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 5 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Источники
- 47
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Mexico in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Mexico baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATВода2 findings
0.88 million acre-feet Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed, 2025. □Сообщённые данные
Water stress on 64% of the area; 114 overexploited aquifers; shared rivers with the United States.
- ENEЭнергетика2 findings
26% Clean share of electricity generation, 2025. □Сообщённые данные
Dry gas supplies 64.2% of electricity; 5,010 PJ of refined products imported; clean share 26%.
- INFИнфраструктураnot assessed
Valley of Mexico subsidence up to 50 cm a year; 2017 Землетрясение damage in several states.
- FOOПродовольствие1 finding
Not bound USDA · blocker: report not retrievable Maize imports, latest marketing year, n/a. ·Not bound
Constitutional ban on planting modified maize; livestock trade disrupted by screwworm; import volumes not bound.
- HLTЗдравоохранение1 finding
34.2% Population with no access to health services (deprivation), 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Poverty at 29.6%; 34.2% without access to health services; heat season deaths recorded by state.
- BIOБиоразнообразие1 finding
94 of 232 Federal protected areas without a management programme, 2026. □Сообщённые данные
232 federal protected areas, 98 million hectares protected; 94 areas without a management programme.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 2, Finance 1, SEI 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-MEX-WAT-001
Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
RSK-MEX-ENE-002
Gas and fuel supply disruption
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- cross-border supply shock or price spike
- Подверженность
- power, transport, industry
- Уязвимость
- dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported [4]
- Мощность
- storage depth not bound; clean share 26% [5]
- Каскад
- TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT
- Горизонт
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
RSK-MEX-CLI-003
Tropical cyclones and river flooding
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms
- Подверженность
- coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys
- Уязвимость
- housing and roads on slopes and floodplains
- Мощность
- parametric cover US$420 million [8]
- Каскад
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- Горизонт
- ежегодно
RSK-MEX-SEI-004
Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- intraslab or subduction Землетрясение; ground sinking
- Подверженность
- Mexico City and central states
- Уязвимость
- older buildings; soft lake-bed soils
- Мощность
- seismological service in routine use [9]; alert capability not bound
- Каскад
- SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN
- Горизонт
- 30 years
Scenario · SCN-MEX-DRT-01
Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
4 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → WATdrought lowers storage and river flows
- 2WAT → FOOirrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises
- 3WAT → ENEhydropower falls and cooling water is constrained
- 4CLI → ENEheat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid
- 5WAT → TRDshared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation
- 6HLT → populationwater and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Mexico matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| От | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Умеренные | Strong | Умеренные | Strong |
| ENE | Strong | · | Strong | Strong | Умеренные |
| FOO | Strong | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Умеренные | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Умеренные | Strong | Умеренные | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → WAT → FOOdrought cuts irrigation and rain-fed yield; 2.83 million hectares of crops were lost to drought in 2018–2023□Сообщённые данные
- TRD → ENE → allimported gas and fuels carry price and supply shocks into power, transport and industry□Сообщённые данные
- CLI → INFa category 5 landfall and heavy rain cut roads, power and homes□Сообщённые данные
- SEI → INFan intraslab Землетрясение damages buildings in several states□Сообщённые данные
- WAT → TRDshortfalls in shared-river deliveries enter trade and tariff talks□Сообщённые данные
05 · Findings
Every finding of Mexico.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Выпуск | Sector or system | Статус | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENE-001 | Мексика | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | In 2024 Mexico imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity generation. |
| ENE-002 | Мексика | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | Clean sources supplied 26% of Mexico’s electricity in 2025, with solar and wind at 13%; the NDC targets 38.5% clean generation in 2030. |
| CLI-003 | Мексика | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Mexico’s 2035 contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e unconditionally and 332–363 conditionally; the 2030 limit is 644 MtCO₂e gross. |
| WAT-004 | Мексика | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed; Mexico committed in February 2026 to annual deliveries of at least 0.35. |
| WAT-005 | Мексика | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, and 114 aquifers were overexploited in 2023. |
| SEI-006 | Мексика | SEI SEI | □ Сообщённые данные | Parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year, and a magnitude 7.1 Землетрясение on 19 September 2017 triggered emergency declarations in 112 municipalities of Puebla. |
| CLI-007 | Мексика | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Ураган Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023; heavy rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states. |
| FOO-008 | Мексика | FOO Продовольствие | □ Сообщённые данные | A constitutional amendment of March 2025 bars planting genetically modified maize, and the United States suspended Mexican live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025 over screwworm. |
| HLT-009 | Мексика | HLT Здравоохранение | □ Сообщённые данные | In 2024, 14.4% of the population lacked access to nutritious food and 34.2% lacked access to health services. |
| BIO-010 | Мексика | BIO Биоразнообразие | □ Сообщённые данные | Of 232 federal protected areas, 94 had no management programme in 2026, and spending was 16.2 pesos per protected hectare. |
| FIN-011 | Мексика | FIN Финансы | □ Сообщённые данные | The government holds US$420 million of World Bank parametric catastrophe bonds for Землетрясение and Atlantic storms, maturing in April 2028. |
| SYS-012 | Мексика | SYS Системные риски | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought that cuts irrigation and hydropower while heat lifts power demand on a gas-reliant grid. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Mexico.
| Бюро | Выпуск | Статус | Идентификатор |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Mexico 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Mexico 2026 | В подготовке | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Mexico 2026 | В подготовке | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Mexico 2026 | В подготовке |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Исправленияafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ИзучениеThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Внести вкладSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- РецензированиеJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Журнал исправлений
| Версия | Дата | Статус | Изменение | Уведомление |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | нет |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Разрыв | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/mex/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Mexico.
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