GCRI
Science and methods
Science at The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) means a question that can be tested, methods that can be checked and results published with their uncertainty and limits. Explore risk science, geospatial science, Earth observation, models and scenarios, The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX) and data, early warning and research integrity. Every method links to its STEM Commons page.
01Contents
Science and methods in six parts.
In this dossier6 parts
- 01PrinciplesEvidence before claims, records before status
- 02Evidence labels in practiceWhat each label promises a reader, with an example from risk work
- 03From science to publicationHow scientific work reaches Reports and how a reader can contribute
- 04Four activitiesResearch, monitoring, modelling and challenge
- 05Where the work runsMethods implemented, tested and published in one loop
- 06SourcesWhere this page’s references lead
02Principles
Evidence before claims, records before status.
Testable
Questions that can fail
Each study states what would count against its hypothesis, and reports it when that happens.
Labelled
Evidence that says what it is
Every result carries one label: observed, published statistics, institution-reported, estimated, modelled, forecast, scenario, expert judgement or unknown.
Challenged
Review that can say no
Qualified reviewers with managed conflicts accept work on method, not on who funded or hosted it.
03Evidence labels in practice
What each label promises a reader, with an example from risk work.
| Label | What a reader may rely on | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Observed | A measurement taken by an instrument or a field team, with its error | River stage at a gauge, in metres above datum |
| Published statistics | A figure released by the responsible agency under its own method | Population by district from a national census |
| Estimated | Derived from partial data by a stated method, with a range | Flood extent from radar imagery, with its accuracy |
| Modelled | Produced by a documented model from stated inputs | Annual expected loss from a catastrophe model |
| Forecast | A model statement about a future period, with verified skill | Seasonal probability of below-normal rainfall |
| Scenario | A coherent hypothetical used to test decisions; carries no probability unless one is shown | A compound heat and grid failure storyline |
| Expert judgement | A structured opinion from named experts, with how it was elicited | Likelihood range for an unprecedented failure mode |
The labels follow the logic of the IPCC’s guidance on consistent treatment of uncertainty: say what kind of evidence it is, how much agreement there is and how confident the authors are. They are defined once for the whole programme under Nexus Standards and methods, and a report that mixes labels shows each one.
04From science to publication
How scientific work reaches Reports and how a reader can contribute.
Reviewed methods are designed for the Methods and Technical series, experimental results for the Labs Evidence series and country analyses for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. Nothing is published until domain review accepts it, and the review state is printed with the work.
- Researchers can propose a study, a replication or a challenge to a published method.
- Agencies can offer data under stated terms; the original owner stays named on every product.
- Anyone can report an error; corrections are made as new recorded versions.
05Four activities
Research, monitoring, modelling and challenge.
Each activity has its own page, standards and limits. Together they move a question from observation to a tested and reviewed result.
- 01
Research
Studies of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and dependence, grounded in the methods of the STEM Commons.
- 02
Monitoring
Observation from sensors and satellites, described under Earth observation, with data quality and gaps stated.
- 03
Modelling
Models and scenarios that state their assumptions and validation, under models and scenarios.
- 04
Challenge
Independent and affected-stakeholder challenge before release, and open correction after it.
06Where the work runs
Methods implemented, tested and published in one loop.
Methods are implemented in Foundry. Data is organised under NXS-GRX and data. Warning science runs under early warning research. Selected work is tested in the annual Universe programme. Reviewed findings are published through Reports.
Scientific work informs decisions; it does not take them. Authority warnings, regulation and public decisions stay with the competent authorities.
07Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- Mastrandrea and others, Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties (IPCC, 2010)
- The European Code of Conduct for Research Integrity, revised edition (ALLEA, 2023)
- Wilkinson and others, The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship, Scientific Data 3 (2016)
- Nexus Standards, the proposed NS series (nexustandards.com)
09Questions
Questions and answers.
How does GCRI handle uncertainty?
Every published result states its uncertainty and the conditions under which it holds. Modelled and scenario results are labelled as such and never presented as observed.
Who reviews GCRI’s science?
Qualified reviewers who declare and manage conflicts, together with the publisher. A reviewer with a declared conflict does not sign the acceptance it concerns.
Can external researchers challenge a finding?
Yes. Anyone can challenge a public finding by writing to the integrity concern form. A challenge receives a reference, and an accepted correction creates a new recorded version.
How does science relate to the specialist platforms?
Each specialist platform applies named methods to one field. The science pages describe the shared standards; the platforms show how the methods are used in water, energy, health and other fields.
Does GCRI use artificial intelligence in its research?
Where AI methods are used, they are named, validated and reported with their limits like any other method. An AI-drafted text is not reviewed work until qualified reviewers have accepted it.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
GCRI
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
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