Disaster Resilience and Recovery
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Anticipatory action releases pre-agreed actions and pre-arranged money when a forecast crosses a trigger, before a hazard reaches its peak impact. Cash before a flood, livestock feed before a drought or evacuation support before a cyclone can reduce losses that response arrives too late to prevent. This page sets out how triggers, actions and financing fit together, how they are evaluated, and what evidence serves those who design and fund them.
GCRI · In development · service level R0
Anticipatory action is acting ahead of a predicted hazard to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts, using actions and financing agreed in advance and released when a forecast trigger is reached. Cash before a flood or feed before a drought can avert losses that response arrives too late to prevent.
For anticipatory action, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on flood water, population density and true-colour imagery with relief in 3D, framed on the Philippines; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Hazards now, for this page
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
For anticipatory action, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on flood water, population density and true-colour imagery with relief in 3D, framed on the Philippines; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
Triggers, lead times and action limits. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
A trigger links a forecast threshold, such as a probability of river levels exceeding a mark within days, to a decision to act. Its design trades missed events against acting when nothing happens.
Funds released only after appeals and approvals arrive too late. Pre-arranged financing, from contingency funds to insurance, lets action start when the trigger is reached.
Who receives what, through which channels and by when is decided before the season. Delivery systems such as social protection registries let assistance move quickly.
Each activation, and each missed event, tests the trigger and the actions. Evaluations compare outcomes with what would otherwise have happened and adjust the design.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Trigger | A predefined forecast threshold that releases funds and actions when it is crossed. |
| Early action protocol | A pre-approved plan setting triggers, actions and budgets for acting ahead of a hazard. |
| Pre-arranged financing | Funding agreed before a disaster and released on set conditions, such as a trigger. |
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anticipatory action frameworks in place | count by country and hazard | annual | Anticipation Hub and agency records | REPORTED |
| Trigger hit rate | percent of hazard events preceded by a trigger | per season | Trigger verification | OBSERVED |
| False activation rate | percent of activations without the hazard | per season | Trigger verification | OBSERVED |
| Time from trigger to assistance | days | per activation | Activation records | OBSERVED |
| People reached before peak impact | count | per activation | Distribution records | REPORTED |
| Pre-arranged financing available | amount by instrument | annual | Fund and policy records | DECLARED |
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| Anticipation Hub (German Red Cross, IFRC and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre) | Map and documentation of anticipatory action frameworks and evidence | Public, terms to check |
| UN OCHA anticipatory action framework documents | Triggers, actions and financing of OCHA-facilitated pilots | Public, UN terms of use |
| IFRC DREF anticipatory pillar and early action protocols | Approved early action protocols and activations | Public, IFRC terms (to check) |
| Global Flood Awareness System and other forecast archives | Forecasts for trigger design and verification | Free, Copernicus terms |
| Start Network Start Ready and Start Fund records | Risk pool and anticipation alerts from NGOs | Public summaries, terms to check |
Disaster Resilience and Recovery prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Humanitarian agencies and Red Cross Red Crescent societies | Which hazards and thresholds to use as triggers | Trigger design studies; forecast verification |
| Ministries of social protection | Whether to extend social protection systems to deliver anticipatory cash | Delivery readiness reviews; evaluation evidence |
| Ministries of finance and donors | How much pre-arranged financing to commit and through which instruments | Financing maps; activation costs and timing |
Anticipatory action research turns on a few demanding questions.
Some hazards give usable warning: floods on large rivers, tropical cyclones, droughts and heatwaves can be forecast days to months ahead. Others, such as earthquakes, give almost none. Where lead time exists, actions such as moving livestock, harvesting early, reinforcing shelters, prepositioning supplies or providing cash can reduce losses that would otherwise require costlier response later.
Anticipatory action depends on decisions made in advance. A trigger links a forecast threshold to a pre-agreed action and pre-arranged funding, so that action does not wait for negotiation. Because forecasts are probabilistic, any trigger will sometimes activate when the hazard does not materialise and sometimes miss events. Good design states those trade-offs openly and accepts that some activations will be in vain.
Linking forecast probabilities to thresholds with forecasting and decision analysis. Historical data to test triggers is often short.
Comparing outcomes for those reached early with similar groups, with social and behavioural science. Ethical and practical limits constrain control groups.
Matching the time each action needs to the warning available. Operational delays often consume the window.
Testing plans before they are needed. See multi-hazard exercises.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.