Seasonal production outlooks
Seasonal climate forecasts and current crop condition are combined in statistical or crop models to give the probability of below-normal production by region, updated as the season progresses.
GCRI · Food Nexus
Forecasting for food security
Forecasting gives food systems lead time: seasonal production outlooks, projections of lean-season food insecurity, staple price outlooks and pest alerts. Its value lies in the lead time it gives and the skill it can demonstrate on past seasons, not in point predictions.
01Register
Forecasting for food security on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodForecasting and time-series analysis
- StewardClimate and Hazards
- Applied inFood Nexus
- Data4 inputs
- Checks4 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What forecasting and time-series analysis does here.
Forecasting and time-series analysis predict future values of variables from past observations and explanatory information. They support early warning and planning across hazards, markets and health. In food and agriculture, trade, resources and supply chains and climate and hazards, forecasts trigger early action and anticipatory finance before shocks materialise. Probabilistic forecasts allow decisions to account for uncertainty across connected systems. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Staple price forecasting
Time-series and structural models project staple prices in monitored markets from world prices, exchange rates, harvests and seasonality, with forecast intervals that widen with lead time.
Anticipatory action triggers
Thresholds on forecast indicators are set and tested on past seasons, so agencies know the expected hits and false alarms before committing finance.
03Geography
Growing conditions in the Black Sea region.
Crop greenness, rain, flood water and true-colour imagery over the Black Sea region, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Growing conditions, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Growing conditions, framed on the Black Sea region.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA HLS S30 · NASA SMAPSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA SMAP. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (13 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by forecasting and time-series analysis on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Seasonal climate forecasts (Copernicus C3S, NMME) | Forcing for outlooks | FORECAST |
| Market price time series | Price model training | Published statistics |
| Crop condition indicators | In-season predictors | OBSERVED |
| Past IPC and FEWS NET classifications | Verification of food insecurity projections | Published statistics |
05Simulator
A shock through an input-output economy.
A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Black Sea region; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Sector hit first (position in the list)
- 0
- Size of the shock
- 30% of its output
- Duration of the shock
- 30 days
- Recovery rate
- 0.08 per day
- Days simulated
- 180 days
Readouts
- Output lost over the run
- 0.58% of a year's output
- Total over direct (multiplier)
- 1.81 times
- Most affected other sector
- Transport
- Its peak inoperability
- 3.4%
Numbers, methods and sources
| Sector | Peak inoperability (%) | Output weight (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Farming | 30.44 | 11.7 |
| Fertiliser and inputs | 1.68 | 17.1 |
| Food processing | 2.34 | 19.0 |
| Transport | 3.39 | 12.3 |
| Wholesale and retail | 0.66 | 27.4 |
| Energy | 2.88 | 12.5 |
Methods
- Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
- Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
- Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page's map can draw:
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
- Railways Natural Earth
- Major roads Natural Earth
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Food Nexus in Foundry
- Tested at Food Nexus in Universe
- Codified in Water and Food Systems in Standards
- Published in Food Nexus in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences in Academy
06Validation
How results are checked.
Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Hindcast verification | Skill is measured on past forecasts by lead time, region and season |
| Reliability and sharpness | Probabilities are checked for calibration as well as for resolution |
| Rolling-origin evaluation | Models are re-trained and tested through time to expose structural breaks |
| Trigger performance record | Hits, misses and false alarms are published for every trigger |
Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.
07Twin and cascade simulator
Model forecasting for food security as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile FAO and food security: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Famine
- Ice-jam flood
- Tropical cyclone
- Heatwave
- HIV epidemic
- Flash flood
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
- Wildfire (set off downstream)
- Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
- Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
- Flash drought (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- FAO and food security
- Food security and nutrition risk Coupling
- Early warning and anticipatory action Coupling
- OCHA and humanitarian data Coupling
- Water risk standards Coupling
Controls
NS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NRS-N3Food and agriculture risk and resilienceNRS-C7Early warning, triggers and anticipatory actionNRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-K40Domain pack profile: Islands small states (DOMAIN-040)NRS-S9System profile: NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)NRS-H57Hazard family: Humanitarian crises (NHS-1 soc.humanitarian)
Observation
- FAOSTAT API (listed for reference)
- GIEWS FPMA food price monitoring tool (listed for reference)
- FEWS NET data (listed for reference)
- Prevalence of undernourishment
- Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)
- Indicator of food price anomalies
Example geography
- The Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin: 178 hexagonal cells
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Sector signature
The sector signature of forecasting for food security.
The sectors forecasting for food security touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations
Signature
Food and its partners
Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
- Food → Health · nutrition0.7
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Climate and Hazards stewards forecasting and time-series analysis for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Methods and evidence
How forecasting for food security is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in forecasting for food security: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
12Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
13Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of forecasting and time-series analysis in this field?
Structural breaks and regime changes undermine models trained on the past. Forecast skill typically declines rapidly with lead time.
How are results checked?
Forecasts are evaluated out of sample with proper scoring rules and reliability diagrams. Rolling-origin evaluation tests performance over time.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method's use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
ReportsContribute
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GCRIFood NexusGlobal Sector Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
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