GCRI · Food Nexus

Food security and access

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. A country can have enough food in aggregate while households go hungry, because access depends on incomes, prices, markets, social protection and conflict as much as on harvests. This page sets out the four dimensions of food security, how each is measured, and what the evidence serves for those who must respond.

02The question

Food security and access: how the risk develops.

Availability, affordability and nutrition. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.

Mechanism

Availability is necessary, not sufficient

National supply from production, stocks, imports and aid sets an upper bound. Hunger occurs inside adequate national supply when food cannot reach a place or people cannot pay for it.

Mechanism

Access runs through prices and incomes

Most poor households buy most of their food. A rise in staple prices, or a fall in wages, remittances or livestock prices, cuts what they can buy, and diet quality is cut first.

Mechanism

Coping strategies deplete assets

Households skip meals, sell livestock and tools, take children out of school and borrow. Each strategy buys time and leaves the household less able to absorb the next shock.

Mechanism

Malnutrition follows with a lag

Poorer diets, disease and inadequate water and sanitation combine into acute malnutrition, often months after the shock that started it. Mortality rises where malnutrition meets outbreaks and displacement.

03Geography

Growing conditions in the Black Sea region.

Crop greenness, root-zone soil moisture and population density over the Black Sea region, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 3

Growing conditions, for this page

About this layer
Evidence
Observed (clouds leave gaps)
Source
MODIS Terra NDVI (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite index; clouds leave gaps
Newest at build
2026-10-13
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite greenness index over the 8 days to the date shown; an indicator of crop and pasture condition, not a yield estimate or a food security warning.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled
Source
SMAP Level 4 (NASA NSIDC DAAC)
Provider
NASA NSIDC DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Model with satellite data assimilated
Newest at build
2026-10-11
Resolution
about 2 km grid
Uncertainty
Model with satellite data assimilated. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Estimated
Source
Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
Provider
NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Vintage
null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
Resolution
about 1 km grid
Uncertainty
Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Observed
Source
VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
Provider
NASA LANCE
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
daily; Satellite image
Newest at build
2026-10-14
Resolution
about 250 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2024-01-01
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
Evidence
Modelled (latest 8-day period GIBS publishes)
Source
MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17) (NASA LP DAAC)
Provider
NASA LP DAAC
Licence
NASA open data
Vintage
8-day; Satellite-driven model; latest 8-day period GIBS publishes
Newest at build
2026-09-30
Resolution
about 500 m grid
Uncertainty
Model estimate of carbon taken up by plants over the 8-day period shown; an indicator of growth, not harvest or production.
Reached through
gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Growing conditions, framed on the Black Sea region.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • SMAP Level 4 soil moisture and snow mass, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
  • Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (13 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI), rolling 8 days: MODIS Terra NDVI, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Root-zone soil moisture, 0 to 100 cm: SMAP Level 4, NASA NSIDC DAAC · 11 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
  • Gross primary production, 8-day total: MODIS Aqua GPP (MYD17), NASA LP DAAC · 30 Sep 2026

04Couplings

Access to food is where shocks in every domain converge on households.

DomainHow it couples hereWhat to watch
WaterDrought cuts both harvests and rural incomes at once. See drought and flood.Seasonal rainfall against livelihood calendars
EnergyFuel and electricity prices raise transport, milling and cooking costs.Share of household spending on food and fuel
HealthUndernutrition weakens immunity, and illness reduces the use of food the body can make; the two feed each other. See health equity.Wasting and stunting prevalence from nutrition surveys
BiodiversityWild foods, fisheries and forest products are a buffer for poorer households.Reliance on wild foods in lean seasons

Food insecurity is measured in two complementary ways: experience-based scales such as FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale, and the IPC acute food insecurity phases (Technical Manual 3.1, 2021), which classify areas by convergence of evidence. The annual State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World and the Global Report on Food Crises draw on both.

05Monitor

Market and harvest early warning.

The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Market and harvest early warning: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Food security and access.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
06Reports, standards and contributions

Access evidence, its limits and who decides.

Analyses of access and its drivers are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series. IPC classifications are made by national analysis teams under the IPC protocols; the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) does not classify or declare famine and does not substitute for those processes. Survey-based datasets would carry NS-3b metadata under the proposed Nexus Standards, with household data never released.

  • Market price series from local markets.
  • Nutrition survey results with methods.
  • Community accounts of coping in lean seasons, with consent.
07Simulator

A shock through an input-output economy.

A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows The Black Sea region; the model itself is not tied to a place.

Controls

Sector hit first (position in the list)
0
Size of the shock
30% of its output
Duration of the shock
30 days
Recovery rate
0.08 per day
Days simulated
180 days

Readouts

Output lost over the run
0.65% of a year’s output
Total over direct (multiplier)
1.82 times
Most affected other sector
Fertiliser and inputs
Its peak inoperability
3.5%
Numbers, methods and sources
SectorPeak inoperability (%)Output weight (%)
Farming31.5312.8
Fertiliser and inputs3.4925.9
Food processing0.5416.1
Transport2.2612.9
Wholesale and retail1.3021.4
Energy2.2410.9

Methods

  1. Input-output analysis Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
  2. Inoperability input-output model Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
  3. Dynamic inoperability and recovery Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
  4. Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

Data

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • Seaports Natural Earth
  • Maritime chokepoints Nexus (named straits and canals at their published coordinates)
  • Railways Natural Earth
  • Major roads Natural Earth
A shock through an input-output economy. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: Input-output analysis (Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press); Inoperability input-output model (Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7); Dynamic inoperability and recovery (Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9).

Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium

08Indicators

What is measured, and how well.

Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.

IndicatorUnitCadenceSource typeLabel
Prevalence of undernourishment (SDG 2.1.1)percent of populationannualModelled from food supply and survey dataMODELLED
Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (SDG 2.1.2)percent of population on the Food Insecurity Experience ScaleannualIndividual and household surveysESTIMATED
Population by acute food insecurity phasepersons per IPC or Cadre Harmonisé phaseper analysisConsensus analysisPublished statistics
Food consumption scoreweighted score with standard thresholdsmonthly to quarterlyHousehold surveys, remote monitoringREPORTED
Cost of a healthy dietpurchasing power parity dollars per person per dayannualRetail prices against dietary guidelinesESTIMATED
Global acute malnutrition among children under fivepercent of childrenper surveyAnthropometric surveys (SMART, DHS, MICS)OBSERVED
Minimum dietary diversity for womenpercent of women of reproductive ageper surveyHousehold surveysOBSERVED
Food share of household expenditurepercent of total expenditureper surveyHousehold budget surveysPublished statistics
09Twin and cascade simulator

Model food security and access as a system. Run the cascade.

Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile FAO and food security: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.

Hazards

  • Famine
  • Ice-jam flood
  • Tropical cyclone
  • Heatwave
  • HIV epidemic
  • Flash flood
  • Storm surge (set off downstream)
  • Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
  • River flood (set off downstream)
  • Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
  • Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
  • Mass displacement (set off downstream)
  • Coastal flood (set off downstream)
  • Extreme fire weather (set off downstream)
  • Wildfire (set off downstream)
  • Heat-driven grid stress (set off downstream)
  • Agricultural drought (set off downstream)
  • Flash drought (set off downstream)

Controls

  • NS-3 Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)
  • NS-10 Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)
  • NRS-N3 Food and agriculture risk and resilience
  • NRS-C7 Early warning, triggers and anticipatory action
  • NRS-H61 Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)
  • NRS-K40 Domain pack profile: Islands small states (DOMAIN-040)
  • NRS-S9 System profile: NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)
  • NRS-H57 Hazard family: Humanitarian crises (NHS-1 soc.humanitarian)

Observation

  • FAOSTAT API (listed for reference)
  • GIEWS FPMA food price monitoring tool (listed for reference)
  • FEWS NET data (listed for reference)
  • Prevalence of undernourishment
  • Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)
  • Indicator of food price anomalies

Example geography

  • The Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin: 178 hexagonal cells
  • Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
  • Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
  • Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
  • Surface air temperature, daytime (AIRS), NASA GIBS
  • Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
10Sources

Where the evidence comes from.

Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.

SourceWhat it givesLicence class
FAO Suite of Food Security IndicatorsUndernourishment, food insecurity experience and related indicators by countryFree and open, attribution
IPC and Cadre Harmonisé analysesArea classifications and population estimates by acute food insecurity phasePublic, attribution
FEWS NETFood security outlooks, livelihood zones, seasonal calendars and market monitoringPublic, attribution
WFP HungerMap LIVE and VAM dataNear-real-time food consumption and coping indicators from remote surveysPublic, terms per WFP
UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition EstimatesStunting, wasting and overweight among children by countryFree and open, attribution
Demographic and Health Surveys and MICSHousehold diets, child anthropometry and living conditionsFree on registration, terms per programme
Food Prices for Nutrition (World Bank and FAO)Cost and affordability of a healthy diet by countryFree and open, attribution
11Sector signature

The sector signature of food security and access.

The sectors food security and access touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Food and its partners

Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
12Decisions

Who decides, and what the evidence serves.

Food Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.

Who decidesThe questionEvidence this page serves
Ministries of agriculture, health and social protectionWhich areas and groups need targeted support, and whether cash, food or nutrition programmes fit bestPopulation by phase, market functioning and diet affordability by area
Humanitarian coordinators and food assistance agenciesWhere to scale assistance before the lean season and how much to prepositionOutlooks with projected phases, seasonal calendars, pipeline and access constraints
Finance and social protection ministriesWhen to trigger shock-responsive transfers and how to finance themTrigger indicators with their historical record of hits and false alarms
Nutrition and public health agenciesWhere acute malnutrition is likely to rise and what treatment capacity is neededSurvey anthropometry, disease surveillance and diet indicators read together

Outputs this topic produces

  • Food-system vulnerability briefs covering availability, access, utilisation and stability
  • Small-area estimates of food insecurity with uncertainty maps
  • Affordability traces linking staple prices and incomes to diet cost
  • Early-warning indicator sets with lead time and skill stated
13Methods and evidence

How food security and access is modelled, measured and tested.

The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.

System model

The couplings between the systems in food security and access: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−++FoodTradeClimateCommunitiesEconomyR reinforcingB balancing
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
14Core questions

What experts ask.

Access is where food-system failures become human harm. A shortfall that markets absorb for wealthier households can mean fewer meals, poorer diets and lasting damage to child growth for poorer ones, so the distribution of exposure matters as much as its national average. Experts therefore look past totals to the households and places that carry the burden.

  • Who cannot afford a nutritionally adequate diet, where do they live and how does that change with prices and incomes?
  • How do households cope with a shock, and when do coping strategies start to damage health, education or future livelihoods?
  • How quickly do world and national price changes reach local markets, and why does this differ between places?
  • Which social protection, school meal or reserve arrangements reduce harm, and what limits their reach?
15Mechanisms

Drivers and processes.

Access depends on income, prices, markets and public support acting together.

Income

Purchasing power

Wage labour, farm income, remittances and transfers determine what households can spend. Seasonal income gaps create predictable hunger periods.

Prices

Affordability

Nutritious foods such as vegetables, fruit, pulses and animal-source foods often cost more per calorie than staples, so price rises push diets toward lower quality.

Nutrition

Diet and health

Undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency and diet-related disease can coexist in the same country and even the same household.

16Methods and data

How the evidence is built, and its limits.

  1. 01

    Household surveys

    Consumption, expenditure and dietary diversity surveys give rich detail but are costly and infrequent.

  2. 02

    Market monitoring

    Retail price series show affordability trends; coverage of remote and informal markets is often thin.

  3. 03

    Food security classifications

    Consensus-based classification systems combine indicators to describe severity. They depend on data quality and access, and their phase definitions should be read on their own terms.

  4. 04

    Modelling

    Cost-of-diet and price transmission models, built with econometrics, estimate affordability under scenarios, with uncertainty that grows with the shock size.

17Methods

How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.

20Questions

Questions and answers.

What are the four dimensions of food security?
Availability of food, access to it, its utilisation through diet, health, water and sanitation, and the stability of all three over time. A failure in any one can cause hunger.
What does IPC Phase 5 mean?
Catastrophe for households, or famine for an area. Famine classification needs evidence that food consumption, acute malnutrition and mortality have crossed agreed thresholds, and it is reviewed by the independent Famine Review Committee.
Why can hunger rise when harvests are good?
Because most poor households buy food. If incomes fall, or prices rise through currency depreciation, conflict or market disruption, access fails even when food is physically present.
How does undernourishment differ from food insecurity experience?
Undernourishment is modelled from food supply and its distribution across a population. The Food Insecurity Experience Scale asks people directly about their experiences. They measure different things and are reported side by side.
Why focus on access rather than supply?
Because availability at national level does not mean that every household can obtain enough nutritious food. Prices, incomes and distribution decide who goes without.
Does the platform classify food crises?
No. Authority classifications remain with the bodies that run them. Food Nexus publishes analysis that cites them where relevant.
Is nutrition within scope?
Yes. Diet quality and nutrition outcomes are central, alongside the quantity of food consumed.
ReportsContribute

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Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIFood NexusGlobal Sector Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
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