Poverty dynamics with panel data
Panel surveys track the same households over time to estimate who moves into and out of poverty and what predicts those moves.
GCRI · Society and Human Development
Econometrics for social outcomes
Econometrics estimates relationships in social and economic data. In this field it measures how income, prices, shocks and policies relate to poverty, wellbeing and inequality, using panels and time series with uncertainty stated.
01Register
Econometrics for social outcomes on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodEconometrics
- StewardEconomic Development
- Applied inSociety and Human Development
- Data3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What econometrics does here.
Econometrics applies statistical methods to economic data to estimate relationships, test theories and forecast. It provides empirical evidence on how shocks and policies affect economic outcomes. In society and human development and information and public trust, econometric evidence estimates how disasters, pandemics and financial shocks affect output, employment and prices. It informs the economic case for risk reduction. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Price shock incidence
Household spending patterns and price data estimate how food and energy price changes affect real incomes across the distribution.
Inequality decomposition
Inequality is decomposed into differences within and between groups, such as regions or genders, to see where gaps come from.
03Monitor
Econometric model.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Econometric model
Society and human development · Econometrics for social outcomes · Run R-6763
Estimates stableGCRI · Society and Human Development
Estimates
robust standard errors
| People in need | 0.58 | 0.07 | [−0.2, 1.0] | Yes |
| Multidimensional poverty | −0.22 | 0.08 | [−0.5, 0.9] | No |
| Internally displaced people | 0.24 | 0.09 | [−0.6, 0.7] | Yes |
| School attendance | 0.14 | 0.11 | [−0.3, 0.3] | No |
Method card
- Method
- Econometrics
- Sample
- 3302 obs
- Design
- panel, fixed effects
- Label
- MODELLED
Residuals by group
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by econometrics on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Panel household surveys | Dynamics | REPORTED |
| Price indices | Price changes | Published statistics |
| Income and consumption surveys | Distribution | ESTIMATED |
05Methods and evidence
How econometrics for social outcomes is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in econometrics for social outcomes: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Measurement error | Analyses account for measurement error in income and consumption |
| Robustness to specification | Results are tested across models |
| Attrition analysis | Panel attrition is assessed for bias |
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
07Process
How the process runs.
Process
Econometrics for social outcomes: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Economic Development stewards econometrics for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
10Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
11Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of econometrics in this field?
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
How are results checked?
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
ReportsContribute
Contribute evidence from this page.
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