Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.

8 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Africa’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Member system cards
  • Shared basins and grids
  • Hub list
  • Regional pathway
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The World Bank counted 1.29 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa in 20243. South Africa had 64.0 million, Kenya 56.4 million and Senegal 18.5 million3. The three members hold about 10.8% of that group. This baseline reads Africa through those three members and through the continental systems around them, so that the reading is partial by design.

The forcing layer is visible in the 2024 record. Average surface temperature was about 0.86 °C above the 1991 to 2020 average, and marine heatwaves covered nearly 30 million km² from January to April1. Southern Africa had an extreme drought, with cereal yields 16% below the five-year average1. East African floods affected more than 700,000 people, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million1. In South Africa, the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape caused at least 90 deaths by 15 June and left about 2,686 people in shelters27.

The food layer follows the rains. The FAO-led report counted 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, above 20% of the population2. The World Bank series carries 36.4% for Kenya, 10.5% for South Africa and 5.6% for Senegal in 202310. Agriculture, forestry and fishing added 22.4% of GDP in Kenya, 15.6% in Senegal and 2.8% in South Africa in 202419.

The water layer is a shared one. Africa has 63 transboundary river basins covering about 62% of its land area32. The Senegal River organisation runs 400 MW of hydropower for four states30. South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 202211.

The energy layer is uneven. Electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa and 189 kWh in Kenya20. Eskom reported no load shedding from 16 May 2025 and 490 consecutive days by 20 September 202629. Senegal reached first gas at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project on 31 December 202431.

This edition therefore reads Africa’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask two questions: where does a shock travel next across a border, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How far does electricity reach? Share of population with access, 2023 (%)

South Africa reached 87.7% of its people in 2023, Kenya 76.2% and Senegal 74.2%, against 53.3% for sub-Saharan Africa4. Use per person was far lower in Kenya than in South Africa, at 189 kWh against 3,405 kWh in 202220. The group is a World Bank grouping and excludes North Africa.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
South Africa87.7
Kenya76.2
Senegal74.2
Sub-Saharan Africa53.3

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.

Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-01-003

87.7%

South Africa access, 20234

76.2%

Kenya access, 20234

74.2%

Senegal access, 20234

53.3%

sub-Saharan Africa access, 20234

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · thermal cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		STRONG
safe water · sanitation		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
air pollution · cooling		MODERATE
land use · mining
FOO FoodSTRONG
≈70% of withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    Failed rains cut river flow and yields and raise hunger.

    Reported drought 20241; hunger2

  2. 02

    CLI → FOO → FIN

    A poor harvest raises food prices and public spending.

    Inferred yields 20241; no price series bound

  3. 03

    WAT → ENE

    Low reservoir levels cut hydropower and raise outages.

    Reported low water at Lake Kariba reduced hydropower in 20241

  4. 04

    INF → ENE → all

    Plant breakdowns cause load shedding that reaches industry and households.

    Reported South Africa load-shedding period and recovery2829

  5. 05

    CLI → INF → HLT

    Flooding damages roads, water and clinics and raises disease risk.

    Inferred Eastern Cape floods27; no health series bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rain-fed yieldFood to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Africa.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskRegional Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices