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Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

4 min read0 figures1 table13 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-CLI-001

    Flood and storm season across borders

    Driver
    extreme rainfall on saturated catchments
    Exposure
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads
    Vulnerability
    drainage and defence condition not bound
    Capacity
    continental early-warning gaps named by WMO1
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-WAT-002

    Failed rains and low flow on shared rivers

    Driver
    low rainfall and high demand
    Exposure
    cereals, hydropower, urban water
    Vulnerability
    dependence on a few reservoirs130
    Capacity
    basin organisations; performance not bound
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-AFR-FOO-003

    Hunger and cereal shortfall in a drought year

    Driver
    drought, flood and price shocks
    Exposure
    rural households and importers
    Vulnerability
    high prevalence of undernourishment210
    Capacity
    national reserves and safety nets not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO → HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AFR-ENE-004

    Power shortfall or grid failure

    Driver
    plant breakdown, drought-hit hydropower or fuel shortage
    Exposure
    industry, water pumping, health services
    Vulnerability
    reserve margin and cross-border flows not bound
    Capacity
    utility recovery programme reported2829
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSSouth Africa Climate Change Act43 and Kenya Climate Change Act44 are in the statute record; delivery not bound
Monitoring and observationEXISTSWMO continental assessment and World Bank series are published14
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: meteorological and flood-warning services · blocker: not retrieved; WMO calls for inclusive early warning1
Preparedness and planningLISTEDAgenda 2063 framework33; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: grid reserve margin and grain reserve records · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for flood events · blocker: not retrieved; provincial statements exist27
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDEskom reports recovery of supply29; performance beyond one utility not bound
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDnational climate laws apply4344; delivery not bound
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved; public debt series bound24
Institutional coordinationEXISTSthe Senegal River organisation operates for four states30; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTScontinental assessments are published145
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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