- Africa 2026
- Chapter 7
The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
7.1Questions for the operational series
- A-01
How would a failed rainy season load power, food and public budgets across member borders?
INI-AFR-CLI-01 · compound rains and power stress; first output: dependency graph for eastern and southern Africa.
- A-02
How reliable is power supply after the load-shedding period, and how does it reach industry and households?
INI-AFR-ENE-02 · power system reliability; first output: availability and outage register for South Africa.
- A-03
How do shared river basins carry drought and flood across borders?
INI-AFR-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Senegal River.
- A-04
How many people are in hunger by member, and which shocks move the figure?
INI-AFR-FOO-04 · food security; first output: hunger and cereal baseline for three members.
- A-05
Where do flood and drought losses fall between households, insurers and public budgets?
INI-AFR-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.
- A-06
What is the condition of protected areas and how is it measured across members?
INI-AFR-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.
- A-07
How far do gas and oil developments change power, budgets and exposure in Senegal?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
- A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-AFR-CLI-01 | Compound rains, power and food stress | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-AFR-ENE-02 | Power system reliability | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-AFR-WAT-03 | Shared basins in drought and flood | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-AFR-FOO-04 | Food security baseline | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-AFR-FIN-05 | Flood and drought protection gap | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| PRJ-AFR-CLI-01a | Eastern and southern Africa compound rains dependency graph | Project | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-AFR-2027-01 | Rains, power and food Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
The Africa regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Africa as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
- 01
National Foundries
continuous national evidence environments
PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027
- 02
National Models and Portfolios
each country as a system of systems
CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines
- 03
Quarterly national reports
State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual
BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series
- 04
Regional aggregation
Africa as one of ten regional clusters
THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027
- 05
Global sector and strategic models
GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20
49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01
- 06
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027
- 07
Global Report
this series
BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition
- 08
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027
7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | 2027 regional annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-AFR-2027-01 · Rains, power and food Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 · temperature | public record | reference for the 2027 series | PUBLIC |
| CLI-002 · floods 2024 | INI-AFR-CLI-01 | compound rains graph | PUBLIC |
| FOO-004 · hunger | INI-AFR-FOO-04 | food security baseline | PUBLIC |
| ENE-005 · access | INI-AFR-ENE-02 | power system reliability | PUBLIC |
| ENE-006 · load shedding | INI-AFR-ENE-02 | power system reliability | PUBLIC |
| WAT-009 · withdrawal | INI-AFR-WAT-03 | shared basins | PUBLIC |
| BIO-011 · protected areas | INI-AFR-BIO-01 | condition indicator | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · compound pathway | MSN-AFR-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the federation | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population and economy | World Bank and national statistics offices | annual | profile |
| Climate and hazards | WMO and national meteorological services | annual | CLI findings |
| Hunger and food | FAO and partners | annual | FOO-004 |
| Power system | Eskom and national utilities | weekly | ENE-006 |
| Macro series | IMF | six-monthly | FIN |
| Humanitarian situation | OCHA and national disaster agencies | event-based | CLI-002 |
| Cholera | WHO | annual | HLT |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- quarterly publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-AFR-001 | Floods of 2024 in East Africa1 | CORROBORATED | CLI · INF | risk object RSK-AFR-CLI-001 |
| SIG-AFR-002 | Southern African drought of 20241 | CORROBORATED | CLI · FOO | research question A-01 |
| SIG-AFR-003 | Eskom recovery 2025 to 202629 | CORROBORATED | ENE · INF | research question A-02 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back