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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Annual freshwater withdrawal as a share of internal resources, South Africa

47.1%

Kenya 19.5%, Senegal 11.9%, sub-Saharan Africa 3.4%. The Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years in the series.

Reported2022World Bank11

ENE · Energy

People with access to electricity, Kenya

76.2%

South Africa 87.7%, Senegal 74.2%, sub-Saharan Africa 53.3%.

Reported2023World Bank4

FOO · Food

Prevalence of undernourishment, Kenya

36.4%

South Africa 10.5%, Senegal 5.6%, sub-Saharan Africa 22.1%, as carried in the World Bank series.

Reported2023World Bank10

HLT · Health

Under-five mortality per 1,000 live births, sub-Saharan Africa

73.2per 1,000

South Africa 34.8, Senegal 38.2, Kenya 39.6.

Reported2023World Bank13

BIO · Biodiversity

Terrestrial area protected, Senegal

26.3%

Kenya 14.0%, South Africa 9.5%, sub-Saharan Africa 17.0%.

Reported2024World Bank12

SYS · Cross-system

People affected by floods in East Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi

700,000people

More than four million affected by floods in West and Central Africa in the same year.

Reported2024WMO1

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATShared basins: 63 in Africa32; South Africa withdrew 47.1% of internal resources in 202211.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 4
ENEAccess 74.2% to 87.7% in the members in 20234; no load shedding in South Africa since 16 May 202529.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOCereal yields 16% below average in southern Africa in 20241; 307 million in hunger2.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTUnder-five mortality 34.8 to 39.6 per 1,000 in the members in 202313.HLT ← CLI, WATReported EQL 5
BIOProtected: 9.5% to 26.3% of land in the members in 202412. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 4
CLIFloods in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in East Africa1; Eastern Cape floods in June 202527.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFEskom reports no load shedding since May 202529. Cross-border power flows not bound.INF → allReported EQL 3
FINPublic debt in 2025 at 78.4% of GDP in South Africa, 71.3% in Kenya and 127.7% in Senegal, on the IMF series24.FIN ← CLI, TRDReported EQL 3
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDGas export from Senegal began with first gas in 202431; trade routes otherwise not bound.TRD → allInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, power and food stressfailed rains across member bordersPARTIAL
GS-01WaterSouth Africa withdrew 47.1% of internal resources11drought on shared basinsPARTIAL
GS-02Energyno load shedding in South Africa since May 202529supply reliabilityPARTIAL
GS-03Foodcereal yields 16% below average in southern Africa1drought and price shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Healthunder-five mortality 34.8 to 39.6 per 1,00013cholera and flood health riskPARTIAL
GS-05Financepublic debt series bound24; loss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentpoverty headcount series bound for Kenya and South Africa22income shocksTHIN
GS-07ClimateSouth Africa Climate Change Act of 202443; Kenya Act of 201644heat, drought and floodPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterfloods affected over 700,000 in East Africa1compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09InfrastructureEskom availability statements2829ageing plant and transmissionPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban share 31.9% to 63.7% by member15urban floodingTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected area shares bound12condition not boundTHIN
GS-12Earth observationWMO continental assessment published1station coverage and continuityPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyAgenda 2063 framework33; national climate laws4344coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencecontinental assessments4546translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Mortality rate, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 27Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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