Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables22 notesNR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Africa’s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The African Union is a separate subject: it appears only as a reference group, and no figure here is a union total.

64.0million

South Africa population, 20243

56.4million

Kenya population, 20243

18.5million

Senegal population, 20243

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
South Africapopulation 64.0 million; GDP USD 401.1 billion; access 87.7%; carbon dioxide 427.3 Mt; freshwater withdrawal 47.1%; protected 9.5%; no load shedding since 16 May 20253456111229Reported
Kenyapopulation 56.4 million; GDP USD 120.4 billion; access 76.2%; carbon dioxide 21.3 Mt; undernourishment 36.4%; protected 14.0%; renewables 78.1% of electricity and 67.7% of final energy in 20213456891012Reported
Senegalpopulation 18.5 million; GDP USD 32.2 billion; access 74.2%; carbon dioxide 13.7 Mt; protected 26.3%; first gas December 202434561231Reported
African Union reference groupno union total is shown; Agenda 2063 frames the continent over 50 years from 201333Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → WAT → FOO across eastern and southern Africa
  • WAT → ENE hydropower on shared reservoirs
  • FOO ← CLI hunger in drought years
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by households and public budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions including land use
  • flood and drought loss series by member
  • electricity mix after 2021

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, power systems and gas fields carry risk across borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

400MW

Senegal River hydropower capacity30

63basins

transboundary river basins in Africa32

2.3Mtpa

Greater Tortue Ahmeyim Phase 1, about31

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Senegal RiverSenegal; Guinea, Mali and Mauritania are outside the member set30Reported
Nile basin and Lake Victoria headwatersKenya; member share not bound; no source read32NOT BOUND
Orange-SenquSouth Africa; member share not bound; no source read32NOT BOUND
LimpopoSouth Africa; member share not bound; no source read32NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
South African national gridEskom reports 490 days without load shedding to 20 September 2026 and year-to-date availability of 67.96%2829Reported
Southern African power exchangeSouth Africa; flows and capacity not bound42NOT BOUND
Eastern African power exchangea press report says Kenya imports power from neighbours; not opened and no figure used52NOT BOUND
West African power exchangeSenegal; flows and capacity not bound42NOT BOUND
Offshore gas fieldGreater Tortue Ahmeyim: first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 Mtpa; shared by Senegal and Mauritania3141Reported

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE low flow into hydropower
  • INF → ENE a plant failure reaching industry and households
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and flow
  • TRD → FIN gas revenue into public budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin area and member shares
  • cross-border power flows and capacity
  • irrigation withdrawals

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Dakar · Nairobi · Pretoria
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
PretoriaSouth AfricaG20 · hubin preparation
DakarSenegalHubin preparation
NairobiKenyaHubin preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Africa as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubsDakar, Nairobi and Pretoria are named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-AFR-2027-Q1
Member editionsSouth Africa in preparation; Senegal in preparation; Kenya in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • The route to the African Union edition in the series
  • Which further African states receive member entries

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities and basin organisations
  • Continental frameworks are set by the African Union and its members; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • The African Union subject has its own edition and is not merged with Africa on code

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 29South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 31World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la démographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du Sénégal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 30African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacité hydroélectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, Félou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 32Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa’s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 28Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Africa.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskRegional Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices